Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
290 (Idalia)
, Major:
290 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia)
Major:
290 (Idalia)
Conditions are marginally more favorable, as the TWO suggests. The upper low that has been present in the area is moving westward, leaving the area in a region of shortwave (localized) upper-level ridging. As a result, though, the diffluence enhancing convection is starting to lessen. Kind of a chicken and egg type thing, yeah, but we're still looking a few days down the road. Depending on which model you look at, per JK's blog post & some analysis, some develop the W Carib feature, others develop the E Carib feature.
Things are slightly more favorable to see tropical develop in the E Carib right now than they were yesterday, but I still believe non-tropical (likely subtropical/hybrid) development, once the system starts, is more likely. This has some support from the globals. We'll see what happens, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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