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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida

Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track
Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM

I posted this on the last forum, but, alas, Clark was already on the ball with this new one! Our local met on Bay News 9 said at 4:50pm: "We've been keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure and at any time they feel it necessary, the NHC can send a plane out there to check it out." Kinda makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Anyway, from what I could glean from the same met 10 minutes later was this: the Bermuda high is creating steering winds lined up like this:
^^^
^^^
^^^
surrounding Florida, and the the low would be on the left side of those steering winds, which would keep it from coming closer to us here on the west coast of Florida. Then again, he mentioned that depending on how fast or how slow this system moves, everything could go squirrley so we need to pay close attention to it until it's past us.
So, here's the gist: most of the rain will be on the eastern side of the storm. The closer the storm is to Florida, the more rain we get. If, on the other hand, it's offshore by 300-400 miles (maybe less) then we get the benefit of some nice weather.
The models seem to have been in agreement with this storm since they latched on, so unless something weird happens, I'm not all that concerned about west central Florida taking a direct hit. That being said, I am concerned that if it stays close enough to our coast line, we will have a lot of flooding problems and there are so many people who still have blue tarps up that it's not even funny.
My Mom called me and asked me if I thought it would be safe for them to drive down on Friday as planned; I told her that I would just keep an eye on the weather and if they have to postpone it by a day then that would be the safest thing to do.
Sorry for being so scientific in my explanations, it's just my nature.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Clark	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Domino	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Jeffmidtown	Wed Jun 08 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 11:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Rabbit	Wed Jun 08 2005 11:46 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	cyclone_head	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:35 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	BigTK99	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	LI Phil	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean	Steve	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:45 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #1 Forms in the Caribbean DELETED	Beaujolais	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:49 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Storm Cooper	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:51 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	rmbjoe1954	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:05 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:36 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	dem05	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:15 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Clark	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:43 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Orlando, FL	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:57 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:02 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	HanKFranK	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:35 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	GuppieGrouper	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:33 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	LI Phil	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:40 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:52 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:09 PM
NWS Posts tropical storm warning	mysticalmooons	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:18 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	Jamiewx	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:21 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	danielw	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:34 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	mysticalmooons	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:26 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	HanKFranK	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:36 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	Rabbit	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:35 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	hurricanejhkj	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:33 PM
Re: NWS Posts tropical storm warning	Jamiewx	Wed Jun 08 2005 07:42 PM
Is this the LLC?	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:45 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:01 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	danielw	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM
Re: Is this the LLC? DELETED	hurricanhoij	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:24 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Terra	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:33 PM
Musings and my take on the depression	Bloodstar	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	javlin	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:16 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	Storm Cooper	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:24 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	RedingtonBeachGuy	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:37 PM
Chat Room is open...	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	MikeC	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:32 PM
Re: Musings and my take on the depression	Rabbit	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:34 PM
Re: where is this?	JohnM	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:39 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	LI Phil	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:49 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Droop31	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:02 PM
where to post??	ftlaudbob	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM
Re: where to post??	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:06 PM
Hype Machine At Full Speed	StormHound	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:08 PM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Tazmanian93	Thu Jun 09 2005 12:09 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	mysticalmooons	Thu Jun 09 2005 12:40 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Clark	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:09 AM
reformation	HanKFranK	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:23 AM
Re: reformation	Droop31	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	mysticalmooons	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:21 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Clark	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:24 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	mysticalmooons	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:29 AM
Re: recon decoder	vvvteddybearvvv	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:37 AM
Re: recon decoder	Rabbit	Thu Jun 09 2005 02:58 AM
Looking better	WeatherNLU	Thu Jun 09 2005 02:53 AM
Re: Looking better	Droop31	Thu Jun 09 2005 02:59 AM
Re: Looking better	Kevin	Thu Jun 09 2005 03:08 AM
Re: 6 AM Quick Look	danielw	Thu Jun 09 2005 06:11 AM
Re: 6 AM Quick Look	hurricane_run	Thu Jun 09 2005 06:19 AM
It's now Tropical Storm Arlene	Cycloneye11	Thu Jun 09 2005 07:28 AM
Re: Looking better	Hurric	Thu Jun 09 2005 06:10 AM
Prototype Model maps	SkeetoBite	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Tazmanian93	Thu Jun 09 2005 12:57 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	mysticalmooons	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	Tazmanian93	Thu Jun 09 2005 01:19 AM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	StormHound	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:40 PM
Re: Hype Machine At Full Speed	LI Phil	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:47 PM
Re: 11pm adv	MikeG	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:49 PM
Re: 11pm adv	Southern4sure	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:52 PM
Re: 11pm adv	Southern4sure	Wed Jun 08 2005 11:01 PM
Re: where to post??	LI Phil	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:04 PM
Re: where to post??	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:10 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Storm Cooper	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:55 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	javlin	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Frank P	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:09 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	danielw	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:14 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Frank P	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	vvvteddybearvvv	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:57 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	Colleen A.	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	javlin	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
Re: 00z runs	JohnM	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
Re: 00z runs	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 10:03 PM
Re: Is this the LLC?	wxman007	Wed Jun 08 2005 09:48 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Steve unplugged	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:45 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Steve-ack	Wed Jun 08 2005 06:46 PM
Re: 18Z Runs w/ NHC Track	Rich B	Wed Jun 08 2005 05:55 PM

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