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Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Kevin
Weather Master

Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida

Td 10
Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM

I'll note five things about the 5:00 PM advisory:
1. System moving west-northwest as expected. This may seem somewhat trivial at this point but will be important to the future track. Seemingly small flucuations now mean big complications in the future.
2. Track shifted further to the right (east). The official forecast now carries it just over Western Cuba. This now puts the southern and central Florida Peninsula at a greater danger of a direct hit.
3. Intensity upped to 70 knots in 72 hours instead of the 60 knots in 72 hours that was previously forecasted. What is even more concerning is that Franklin said that future itensity forecasts may be "rather higher" than the one that is out now.
4. A Gulfstream plane is going to investigate the system tonight, sampling the environment in around the storm. This will be put into the 00Z models...should be a reality check for the models that are forecasting a weak system moving west.
5. The current burst of convection near the center may be the beginning of an intenisifcation phase.

So, that's the story for this advisory. Have a feeling that things are going to get intersting (to say the least) over the next few days. Local media giving this one much more attention than they did last night.

I've also noticed that the storm has taken on more of a comma-like appearance. This is often a sign of a storm beginning to organize and intensify.

I'm becoming more certain of one thing... wherever this storm goes it should make quite a mess.

Kevin

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
To Be or Not To Be?	CFHC	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:55 PM
Not YET	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:58 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:51 PM
td 10/11	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:00 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:12 PM
Re: td 10/11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:17 PM
Re: td 10/11	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:19 PM
Td 10	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:37 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:44 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:46 PM
TD# 11 Discussion	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:52 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:56 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	medic8ed	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:10 PM
WHERE IT GOES??	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:16 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:05 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:54 PM
no telling	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:11 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:57 PM
Re: no telling	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:32 AM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:08 AM
Re: Direct TV	Domino1	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:35 AM
recon	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:48 AM
Re: recon	doug	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:44 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:50 AM
Re: recon	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:48 AM
Movine west?	Southern4sure	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:04 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:47 AM
Re: Movine west?	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 AM
Re: Movine west?	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:19 AM
Re: recon	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 AM
Re: recon	Mike	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:42 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:40 AM
TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:45 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:49 AM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:49 PM
getting ready to explode	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:05 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:21 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	John C	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:56 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:06 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:47 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: getting ready to explode	Joe	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:05 PM
May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:58 PM
Re: May I present....	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:04 PM
Re: May I present....	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:07 PM
transgendered systems	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:43 PM
Re: transgendered systems	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
TD#11 at 5 PM	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:49 PM
How rude.	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:02 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:55 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:46 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:09 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:06 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:57 PM
games	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:09 PM
Re: games	Hurric	Tue Sep 17 2002 02:20 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:10 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:17 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	andy1tom	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:39 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	troy2	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:33 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:10 PM
33/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:18 PM
On Track?	scottsvb	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:54 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:20 PM
track	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:44 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:51 PM
Td 10 (future Isidore) track	Kevin	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:05 PM
Re: Td 10 (future Isidore) track	brew	Tue Sep 17 2002 04:30 PM
Kevin	clyde w	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:19 PM
Tallahassee Bill	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:51 PM
Re: track	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:45 PM
11 noname	Alan	Tue Sep 17 2002 03:39 PM
Re: On Track?	Marktropic	Tue Sep 17 2002 01:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Mary	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:37 PM
Re: 33/52	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 12:47 PM
Re: TD Ten is back!	Rich B	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:47 AM
Why Not A Test ?	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:39 AM
Re: Why Not A Test ?	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:48 PM
No Storm Yet	garyb	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:33 AM
Re: recon	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 AM
Re: recon	RBL	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 AM
Re: recon	Rick in Mobile	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Isadore??	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:11 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:49 AM
Re: recon	Rasvar	Tue Sep 17 2002 08:09 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:23 AM
bingo DELETED	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:35 AM
what the..	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:36 AM
32/52	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:39 AM
bingo	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 07:33 AM
Re: recon	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:50 AM
Re: recon	Domino	Tue Sep 17 2002 05:50 AM
Re: recon	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:26 AM
Re: recon	BabyCat	Tue Sep 17 2002 06:36 AM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:52 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:44 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:54 PM
Re: no telling	RBL	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:53 PM
Re: no telling	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:32 PM
Re: no telling	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:35 PM
getting fun, ain't it?	Rick in Mobile	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:06 PM
Re: getting fun, ain't it?	57497479	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:16 PM
LLCC?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 11:22 PM
Re: Any Ideas on Florida Impact?	JustinMiami	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:57 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 10:18 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:31 PM
TD 10????	WXMAN RICHIE	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:55 PM
Re: no telling	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 09:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:26 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:20 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:12 PM
Re: Mark	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:21 PM
Re: Mark	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:27 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Anonymous	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:54 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:11 PM
an early good night	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:57 PM
Re: an early good night	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:04 PM
Re: an early good night	Bruce	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:14 PM
Re: an early good night	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:29 PM
Re: an early good night	Joe	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:34 PM
discussion...	Anonymousnickd	Mon Sep 16 2002 08:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	troy2	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:48 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:51 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	scottsvb	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Robert	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:18 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	Kevin	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:35 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	ShawnS	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:42 PM
Re: To Be or Not To Be?	StormHound	Mon Sep 16 2002 07:32 PM

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