#28 Published Thursday June 09, 2005 at 1:00 pm EDT As of 11:00 am EDT we officially have T.S. Arlene. She continues on a slow NNW movement towards the Yucatan Channel. She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. It appears that this mid level trough will weaken rather slowly, continuing the shearing environment for another 24-30 hours. As I mentioned yesterday evening at best Arlene will reach weak category 1 hurricane strength, with strong T.S. strength the best bet. Landfall sometime on Saturday near Mobile Bay, AL per the NHC seems reasonable. However with a temporary weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida a land fall near Pensacola, FL is also possible. Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period.
Take Care, Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster Plant City, FL, USA kn4lf@arrl.net
0 registered and 994 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 63621
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast
Edit
Reply
Quote
