early Saturday the shear conditions around Arlene should have improved a good bit, and it will be on the less pressing flank of the upper trough/subsidence (the trough should weaken some as well). i've noticed that the ssts in the north central gulf have warmed a couple of degrees in the last couple of days... probably shallow warmth, but at 82-83 offshore near the expected impact point, i'm starting to think that arlene might throw together a nice little intensification burst before hitting land. decent chance it's a minimal hurricane at impact late saturday. as for 91L.. it's actually moving into a low shear zone, with potential outflow evacuation mechanisms nearby. the ssts up where it is are very marginal though.. upper 70s to 80. it'll really have to fight to do anything. more than one global is on to future development near the central and eastern caribbean and northward early next week. if anything does the upper ridge will have weakened significantly and it would most likely move north and east.
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