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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)
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Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: TD #10 and TD #11
      Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM

With a potential landfall looming here on Florida's west coast, I was lured out of hiding to post here at CFHC. It appears that this upcoming weekend will be very interesting for Florida.

This evening's satellite imagery indicates increasing convection in TD 10's western quadrant with heavy activity directly over the surface circulation. While the system is still organizing itself, it is poised for rapid intensification. The upper low over the NW Caribbean continues to distance itself from TD 10 and an upper anticyclone is building overtop the system. Westerlies from an intensifying trough north of Puerto Rico are facilitating excellent ventilation for the depression. Considering these increasingly favorable conditions aloft and warm Caribbean SSTs, strengthening to hurricane status may be in short order after initial organization during the next 12 hours.

The current trough over the southern Plains will have little impact on TD 10. The second trough that will dig into the western Plains on Wednesday will eventually halt westward progress of our storm and turn it north and northeast. I see no reason to differ from TPC's forecast track. The storm will continue to track WNW for another 36-48 hours and will be moving NW as it nears western Cuba in 72 hours. Thereafter, it is just a matter of how sharp of a turn occurs. I am quite confident that this will be an east Gulf storm. I don't foresee any landfall west of 85 W. If anything, the forecast track may be shifted eastward with time. It looks like some part of Florida's west coast will be under the gun in 96 hours. My best bet right now is the SW coast. It will be interesting to see how much SW shear and intruding dry air the trough causes when our storm is in the SE Gulf.

That wlll be it for now.

God Bless,
Ronn

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD #10 and TD #11 CFHCAdministrator Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:31 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 rick in mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:36 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 rick in mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 PM
. * * MIAMI STATEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:55 PM
. * * Check This Out...... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Check This Out...... nick   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
. * * eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:53 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 03:35 AM
. * * Re: eye? Rich B   Wed Sep 18 2002 04:09 AM
. * * Re WHAT DIRECTION? 57497479   Wed Sep 18 2002 06:00 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 03:14 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:11 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:09 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:04 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:02 AM
. * * Re: eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:07 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:10 AM
. * * Re: eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:13 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:33 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:58 AM
. * * Mary clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Mary Floridacane   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:44 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 PM
. * * Local Wx Reports clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Local Wx Reports wxman007   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:02 AM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:04 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Mary   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:05 PM
. * * New data alan   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 PM
. * * All I can say is... StormHound   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:55 PM
. * * Re: All I can say is... Mary   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:07 PM
. * * de plane.. de plane... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 PM
. * * by the way.. HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:41 PM
. * * Re: All I can say is... Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:03 PM
. * * knots to mph Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:39 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:17 PM
. * * ten HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:22 PM
. * * Hey Ronn!! Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:53 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Ronn   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 APM   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:03 PM
. * * target....gulf of mexico...then? Rick in Mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? mbfly   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? JustMe   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:54 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:43 PM
. * * Predicting Predictions Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:42 PM
. * * talk talk HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Re: talk talk rickin mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:00 PM
. * * Not concerned in Louisiana... Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:17 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:47 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:16 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 57497479   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Rad   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:40 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 ROB H   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:58 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:56 PM
. * * cor HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:27 PM
. * * Re: cor Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: cor HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
. * * Re: cor ShawnS   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:04 PM

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