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Newly tagged Invest 91L in the Central American Gyre heading towards MX/TX, a slow and sprawling flood threat. Bahamas hybrid well E of FL 10%/30% odd and expected to track back to the W across FL or SE US this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL

Re: TD #10 and TD #11
Wed Sep 18 2002 01:12 AM

With a potential landfall looming here on Florida's west coast, I was lured out of hiding to post here at CFHC. It appears that this upcoming weekend will be very interesting for Florida.

This evening's satellite imagery indicates increasing convection in TD 10's western quadrant with heavy activity directly over the surface circulation. While the system is still organizing itself, it is poised for rapid intensification. The upper low over the NW Caribbean continues to distance itself from TD 10 and an upper anticyclone is building overtop the system. Westerlies from an intensifying trough north of Puerto Rico are facilitating excellent ventilation for the depression. Considering these increasingly favorable conditions aloft and warm Caribbean SSTs, strengthening to hurricane status may be in short order after initial organization during the next 12 hours.

The current trough over the southern Plains will have little impact on TD 10. The second trough that will dig into the western Plains on Wednesday will eventually halt westward progress of our storm and turn it north and northeast. I see no reason to differ from TPC's forecast track. The storm will continue to track WNW for another 36-48 hours and will be moving NW as it nears western Cuba in 72 hours. Thereafter, it is just a matter of how sharp of a turn occurs. I am quite confident that this will be an east Gulf storm. I don't foresee any landfall west of 85 W. If anything, the forecast track may be shifted eastward with time. It looks like some part of Florida's west coast will be under the gun in 96 hours. My best bet right now is the SW coast. It will be interesting to see how much SW shear and intruding dry air the trough causes when our storm is in the SE Gulf.

That wlll be it for now.

God Bless,
Ronn

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
TD #10 and TD #11	CFHC	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:12 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:31 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	rick in mobile	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:36 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:26 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	rick in mobile	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:02 AM
MIAMI STATEMENT	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:10 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:58 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:55 AM
Check This Out......	Colleen A.	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:10 AM
Re: Check This Out......	nick	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:21 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Joe	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:58 AM
eye?	Domino	Wed Sep 18 2002 05:53 AM
Re: eye?	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 07:35 AM
Re: eye?	Rich B	Wed Sep 18 2002 08:09 AM
Re WHAT DIRECTION?	57497479	Wed Sep 18 2002 10:00 AM
Re: eye?	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 07:14 AM
Re: eye?	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:11 AM
Re: eye?	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:09 AM
Re: eye?	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:04 AM
Re: eye?	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:02 AM
Re: eye?	Domino	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:07 AM
Re: eye?	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:10 AM
Re: eye?	Domino	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:13 AM
Re: eye?	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 06:33 AM
Re: eye?	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 05:58 AM
Mary	clyde w.	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:38 AM
Re: Mary	Floridacane	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:44 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	troy2	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:36 AM
Local Wx Reports	clyde w.	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:33 AM
Re: Local Wx Reports	wxman007	Wed Sep 18 2002 05:02 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	clyde w.	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:04 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Mary	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:33 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:05 AM
New data	alan	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:49 AM
All I can say is...	StormHound	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:55 AM
Re: All I can say is...	Mary	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:07 AM
de plane.. de plane...	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:36 AM
by the way..	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:41 AM
Re: All I can say is...	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 03:03 AM
knots to mph	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:39 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:17 AM
ten	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 18 2002 02:22 AM
Hey Ronn!!	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:53 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Ronn	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:12 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	APM	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:03 AM
target....gulf of mexico...then?	Rick in Mobile	Wed Sep 18 2002 12:27 AM
Re: target....gulf of mexico...then?	mbfly	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:34 AM
Re: target....gulf of mexico...then?	JustMe	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:54 AM
Re: target....gulf of mexico...then?	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:43 AM
Predicting Predictions	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 12:42 AM
talk talk	HanKFranK	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:13 AM
Re: talk talk	rickin mobile	Wed Sep 18 2002 01:26 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	clyde w.	Wed Sep 18 2002 12:00 AM
Not concerned in Louisiana...	Anonymous	Wed Sep 18 2002 12:17 AM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	clyde w.	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:47 PM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:16 PM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	57497479	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:52 PM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Rad	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:40 PM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	ROB H	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:58 PM
Re: TD #10 and TD #11	Anonymous	Tue Sep 17 2002 09:56 PM
cor	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:27 PM
Re: cor	Colleen A.	Tue Sep 17 2002 10:39 PM
Re: cor	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:02 PM
Re: cor	ShawnS	Tue Sep 17 2002 11:04 PM

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