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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
talk talk
      Tue Sep 17 2002 09:13 PM

i keep hearing 'convection is starting to wrap around the center' and 'i can see the spin' all the time.. yet still we still have a big amorphous system with convection bursting mostly east of the center. the center is still at the eastern edge of the whole mass, below the western side of jamaica. folks really just plot the center from the vortex message (it has been erratically bobbing around south of jamaica all day) and you can see that the storm is still lopsided and disorganized. believe it or not the reason the storm isnt intensifying is BECAUSE of all the convection away west. put it in the wrong place and it starves the center of inflow, if the upward forcing is going on elsewhere. the richest inflow in this case is the low level easterly flow... and where is most of the deep (very deep) convection.. east of the center.
system is still the snowball at the top of the hill. once the convection finally starts to 'wrap' as everybody always claims to see (or at least some bursts west of the center, or directly overhead).. then this thing will start to deepen like crazy.
keep delaying that and the storm misses critical guidance connections.. in other words we get a wandering system that doesnt try to phase in. a massive storm that is a forecasting nightmare.
its very unlikely this storm will continue to avoid deepening indefinitely, but not impossible. i must say though, i have never seen a storm in a better position keep refusing to knock out the one stone that causes the mountain to fall.
HF 0105z18september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD #10 and TD #11 CFHCAdministrator Tue Sep 17 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:31 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 rick in mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:36 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 rick in mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:02 PM
. * * MIAMI STATEMENT WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:55 PM
. * * Check This Out...... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Check This Out...... nick   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Joe   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:58 PM
. * * eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:53 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 03:35 AM
. * * Re: eye? Rich B   Wed Sep 18 2002 04:09 AM
. * * Re WHAT DIRECTION? 57497479   Wed Sep 18 2002 06:00 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 03:14 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:11 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:09 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:04 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:02 AM
. * * Re: eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:07 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:10 AM
. * * Re: eye? Domino   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:13 AM
. * * Re: eye? Anonymous   Wed Sep 18 2002 02:33 AM
. * * Re: eye? troy2   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:58 AM
. * * Mary clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Mary Floridacane   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:44 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 troy2   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 PM
. * * Local Wx Reports clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Local Wx Reports wxman007   Wed Sep 18 2002 01:02 AM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:04 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Mary   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:33 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:05 PM
. * * New data alan   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:49 PM
. * * All I can say is... StormHound   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:55 PM
. * * Re: All I can say is... Mary   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:07 PM
. * * de plane.. de plane... HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:36 PM
. * * by the way.. HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:41 PM
. * * Re: All I can say is... Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 11:03 PM
. * * knots to mph Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:39 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:17 PM
. * * ten HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 10:22 PM
. * * Hey Ronn!! Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:53 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Ronn   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:12 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 APM   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:03 PM
. * * target....gulf of mexico...then? Rick in Mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:27 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? mbfly   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:34 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? JustMe   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:54 PM
. * * Re: target....gulf of mexico...then? Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:43 PM
. * * Predicting Predictions Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:42 PM
. * * talk talk HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:13 PM
. * * Re: talk talk rickin mobile   Tue Sep 17 2002 09:26 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:00 PM
. * * Not concerned in Louisiana... Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 08:17 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 clyde w.   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:47 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:16 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 57497479   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:52 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Rad   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:40 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 ROB H   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:58 PM
. * * Re: TD #10 and TD #11 Anonymous   Tue Sep 17 2002 05:56 PM
. * * cor HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:27 PM
. * * Re: cor Colleen A.   Tue Sep 17 2002 06:39 PM
. * * Re: cor HanKFranK   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:02 PM
. * * Re: cor ShawnS   Tue Sep 17 2002 07:04 PM

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