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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
The Arlene Situation
      Thu Jun 09 2005 11:30 PM

5PM Update 10.Jun
Hurricane Watch extended eastward to Indian Pass, FL (Just west of Tallahassee) and winds upgraded to 65MPH.

See Clark's blog below for an updated discussion.

11:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene Strengthens some more, now Hurricane Watches are up along the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi to Panama City Beach, FL.

The windspeed is based off of aircraft recon reports, which reported around 50 knot winds near the disorganized center of Arlene. In fact they moved the center northward a bit because of relocation. So this may happen again. Vertical windshear weakened and has allowed Arlene to strengthen a bit as it entered the Gulf. And because of the close call, Arlene may squeeze itself to minimal hurricane strength, and at the very least force the Hurricane Watches along the coast. Folks in the watch area will want to be ready for a minimal hurricane.

Most of the energy is on the Northeastern side of the storm, including rainfall bands coming into Southwestern Florida now.



8:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene is now in the Gulf of Mexico, and the winds are up to 55MPH. Arlene has been spawning waterspouts near the Florida Keys, and may stir up the atmosphere enough to spawn more relatively weak waterspouts/tornadoes.

7:30 AM Update 10.Jun
Tropical Storm Arlene got slightly stronger overnight, and now Tropical Storm Watches are up from Morgan City, LA to Indian Pass Florida. The models have drifted a bit west, and this watch area is pretty solid I thnk. A good portion of the energy extends Northeastward on this system, which will bring rain to Central Florida as well.

The forecast maps below are probably too far east, but we'll wait and see today.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Arlene is still south of the west of Cuba, and not all that organized right now.

It may have a chance to strengthen just a little when it gets into the Gulf proper. However, if it gets closer to land the windshear as it approaches will likely pick up, which would keep the storm in check and stop it from growing too strong. Arlene still has a window to reach minimal hurricane strength, but I doubt it will reach that. A strong Tropical storm and rain event is most likely over the weekend.

The most recent trends have it going a little west of the prior forecast tracks, which is good news for us in Florida, as it may keep some of the rain away. However, the extent of the storm northward will still give us some of the outermost bands, as Arlene is a large storm, so it won't be rain free. Some of it is already in the Keys. The intensity is still in question, so we'll have to watch. As mentioned before the good news is that it might weaken before it gets to land a bit, from whatever it will be at the time. The 36 hour timeframe is liekly when Arlene will peak.

Skeetobite Forecast Maps: (Click Maps for larger image)


Movement likens it more from LA to the western Florida Panhandle. Centering along the Alabama and Mississippi Coastline. This could change, as I'm not all that confident in it. The trend has been to the west, after moving a bit to the east. Persistence is the key to watch here.



As this is an early June storm, they actually tend to be easier to predict, but even then, it's not all that great.

We'll be watching it closely. The area east of the Caribbean is still looking ragged and not at all likely to develop anytime soon.


Event Related Links

Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Edited by Clark (Fri Jun 10 2005 06:59 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Arlene Situation MikeCAdministrator Thu Jun 09 2005 11:30 PM
. * * 11/0800Z - Arlene Update - New center? MS/LA Landfall? berrywr   Sat Jun 11 2005 04:06 AM
. * * 11/0615Z - Arlene, new center? - MCC movg due W berrywr   Sat Jun 11 2005 02:14 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation KN4LF   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation KN4LF   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation bamffl   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation bamffl   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation bamffl   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:49 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Droop31   Thu Jun 09 2005 11:43 PM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:03 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Kal   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:09 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation jaybythebay   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Morningstar   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation Rabbit   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM
. * * Re: The Arlene Situation WeatherNLU   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:35 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:27 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update larfromgnvl   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:57 AM
. * * CDO largromgnvl   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: CDO Kal   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:23 AM
. * * Re: CDO jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:30 AM
. * * Re: CDO MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:20 AM
. * * Re: CDO Shalafi   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: CDO Artsy Fartsy   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Heads Up   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:44 AM
. * * Is this what I am seeing? Artsy Fartsy   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:08 AM
. * * arlene is strengthening Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? Kandi   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? Jenny   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Is this what I am seeing? jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Heads Up   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:14 AM
. * * recon info AMK   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: recon info rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: recon info scottsvb   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:02 PM
. * * possibilities Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Southern4sure   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:52 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:27 PM
. * * watch the visible loop Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: possibilities jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:19 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Raincoat   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: possibilities ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: possibilities SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM
. * * Re: possibilities rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: possibilities jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: possibilities jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: could it be? WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:45 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:46 PM
. * * TS winds lar   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:34 PM
. * * Re: could it be? jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:49 PM
. * * Tornados? ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Tornados? WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Tornados? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: could it be? jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:56 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: could it be? mysticalmooons   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: could it be? mysticalmooons   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: could it be? BIg TK   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: could it be? MikeG   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Taking a moment... wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... jth offline   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Satellite & Winds berrywr   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Big TK   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds CarolinaGurl   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Ronn   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Heather   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds FlaMommy   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds jth at home   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Rabbit   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds WeatherNLU   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:33 PM
. * * New Vortex...big pressure drop... wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... Hurricane Guy   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... berrywr   Sat Jun 11 2005 01:33 AM
. * * Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Littlebit   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Kandi   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:21 PM
. * * My predicition stays :) Rich B   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Littlebit   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Ed G   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Heads Up   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Satellite & Winds Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:26 PM
. * * Bouy Pressure/Winds Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Wingman51   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Jax Chris   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Wingman51   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Ruffsmom   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... VolusiaMike   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:36 PM
. * * My Thinking... wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:20 PM
. * * Re: My Thinking... berrywr   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: My Thinking... Orlandoalan   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: My Thinking... Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... bob76   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Taking a moment... Rabbit   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:19 PM
. * * First Real Band WXMAN RICHIE   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: could it be? RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Clark   Fri Jun 10 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Ed in Va   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: could it be? jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Londovir   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Rabbit   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: could it be? scottsvb   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: could it be? ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:55 PM
. * * Re: could it be? anon   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: could it be? ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: could it be? Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: possibilities ftlaudbob   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM
. * * death LI Phil   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: death Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: death rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:58 PM
. * * huh?? Frank P   Fri Jun 10 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: huh?? RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jun 10 2005 02:56 PM
. * * Re: death Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:21 PM
. * * Re: possibilities HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 PM
. * * Re: possibilities rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: possibilities Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: possibilities jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Back for Another Season FlaRebel   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Back for Another Season Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM
. * * Re: recon info rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: recon info scottsvb   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: recon info mysticalmooons   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 cyclone_head   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 scottsvb   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 wxman007   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 rmbjoe1954   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 AgentB   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 Heads Up   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 mbfly   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:07 AM
. * * Re: CDO Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:43 AM
. * * Flood Watches Extended in Florida Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: CDO Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: CDO Liz   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Kal   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Katie   Fri Jun 10 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:33 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:25 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Cocoa Beach   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re:Arlene Update jth   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:21 AM
. * * Chat last night Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Chat last night Ricreig   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Chat last night Terra   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Chat last night Ricreig   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z) berrywr   Fri Jun 10 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Re: Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z) HCW   Fri Jun 10 2005 06:56 AM
. * * Key West Cocoa Beach   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:13 AM
. * * Habana Cocoa Beach   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:42 AM
. * * Re: Habana WeatherNLU   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:53 AM
. * * Re: Habana Droop31   Fri Jun 10 2005 07:57 AM
. * * NWS Discussion @ 8:46am Colleen A.   Fri Jun 10 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Habana HanKFranK   Fri Jun 10 2005 08:31 AM

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