If you use Channel 2 IR, you can clearly see the low level circulation of Arlene separated from her convection. The upper level situation this morning indicates upper level trough remains to the west and north of Arlene, subtropical ridge to her northeast and building towards the SE-Carolina coast, upper level closed low underneath the ridge. My memory serves me correct; this placement of the lows & highs, will continue to build the ridge in the short term. I had a hard time finding the upper level low on satellite, so this might bear some watching later in the forecast period if it reflects down to the surface. There is a window of opportunity looking at the GOES 12 Shear analysis, but shear is expected to increase just prior to landfall according to the models. Arlene's appearance is that of a hybrid system. She continues to have a large circualtion envelope as evident on the water vapor imagery this morning. I'm not about to guess whether she'll obtain CAT1 Hurricane status; hybrid systems can often achieve that status; but no higher. Track position looks good, though I expect the center will continue to be nudged westward, a north moving system has all her weather on it's north and east flanks and Arlene is true to form.
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Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z)
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