had me guessing for a minute too... last advisory, satelite presentation, vortex message... the evidence didn't add up.
arlene has its winds bumped up to 55mph... recon evidence is there.. but i wouldn't call that characteristic of how strong the storm is. the shear has been forecast to relax gradually as arlene moves into the gulf, so that numbers should seem authentic as can be later today. official track is over in ms again this morning. still leaning a tad east, but it's close enough (ms gets hit, and al/fl panhandle get just as much weather). think arlene will get stronger than officially forecast, but not by much. it's getting around the unhelpful side of the upper trough to it's west right now, and the subsidence entrainment should be slowly slacking off. enough for limited further strengthening, anyhow.
out-of-the-blue.. nhc is mentioning disturbed weather near the islands, but they could also give a shoutout to the low southeast of bermuda.. yesterday's 91L. this morning it's popping a couple of thunderstorms near the center. it's a regular td 4 (2000) out there. i have a feeling that it won't go away until it makes the TWO highlights.
HF 1330z10june
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