Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight

Last one before heading out: 11p discussion by Stacy Stewart is a good read. Check it out on the NHC's page. Somewhere around Pensacola still looks good in my bet. The center is visible on Tallahassee and Northwest Florida long-range radar. I recommend using the new RIDGE radar displays, at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/tlh_long.html and
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/evx_long.html

When you look at a static image, you can click on a location on the coast and then move your mouse to the center of the storm. The distance finder at the bottom will tell you how far the center is from the coast on-the-fly, a pretty handy tool. For instance: the radar tells me the center is 175mi south of Destin right now and 185mi south-southeast of Pensacola.

Anyway, what I wanted to point out is that despite the recent convective trends on satellite, the IR imagery is hinting at the eye feature becoming better defined. It is visible at least half-way on the aforementioned radars, the locations of which match the satellite image well. The dry air to the south will remain present to too large of a degree to allow for a significant intensification of the system as a whole (or of anything on the south side of the storm), but cat. 1 intensity at landfall is well within the realm of possibility.

High-resolution SST imagery available at: http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/05jun/gm_05jun10_0256_multi.png shows that the convective weakening trend is likely due to the end of the diurnal minimum cycle plus the cooler SSTs over the south end of Apalachee Bay. Some of the warmest waters in the Gulf lie ahead of the storm south of Pensacola. This westward jog doesn't help things. The fast forward motion means that it may not be all that significant, but with the diurnal convective maximum cycle to come over the next 8-12hr plus the move into SSTs that are about 3-5 deg warmer than where the storm is now, it is something to take note of during the overnight.

The storm will likely start to affect the Panhandle with some stronger rain bands in the next few hours; already regions from Panama City to Tallahassee are seeing more of the rain bands that characterized the day on Friday. It's all downhill for those locations for the next 12-18hr, to improve late night Saturday. Rainfall amounts should still be in the 3-5" range, with some locally heavy amounts. Further down the state, one of the feeder bands from Arlene is stretched along the coast from Tampa to the Keys, with the band along the coast responsible for some special marine warnings. Isolated waterspouts and weak tornadoes are possible through the overnight hours with this band. Areas in the vicinity of this band may see a couple of inches of rain before all is said and done as well.

Those of you between Pascagoula and Destin...hunker down. The worst is still yet to come...

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