#Beryl now a Hurricane with 75mph. Now Forecast to be a 120mph Major Hurricane near the Windwards on Monday. Hurricane Warnings now up for Barbados, Watches for other areas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
304 (Idalia)
, Major:
304 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia)
Major:
304 (Idalia)
Rabbit -- not necessarily. For the reasons I outlined in my previous post, the convection hit the cooler waters of southern Apalachee Bay at the right time -- the diurnal convective minimum -- to result in the pattern we've seen. It happened last night, too. There's plenty of time for things to recover: it only takes one hour, really. Upper level conditions are still diffluent (winds moving in different directions over a horizontal area), favorable for convection, and the warmest waters are still yet to come as the storm makes its final approach to landfall. I'm not saying it won't weaken, but I don't think you can make such a statement yet, especially considering the steadily falling pressure over the past 6hr despite the weakening convective trend over the past 2-3hr.
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