From what I read at the 5 am discussion from the NWS there appears to be 2 different senarios: THERE SEEM TO BE TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND ARLENE MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING TIME BEFORE LANDFALL. IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING.
THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN.
I guess we just wait and see.
MaryAnn
-------------------- "The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
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