Well...the intermediate advisory is out, and of course, the keep arlene as a strong TS...
[/ MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. [color]
she is clearly visible on radar now, and at times it appears she is tightening up and her convection is wrapping around her center, trying to form a defined eyewall...
it will be a very close call as to whether NHC bumps her up to a cane at 11...while i don't wish this upon those affected, it would win me a bet and make keith234 the "winner" of the "first named hurricane" portion of the 2005 contest...
except for a very small and concentrated area, winds should not really be a problem for most...but this is a huge rainmaker for many, there will be some beach erosion, and of course there is always the possibility of spontaneous tornadoes in arlene's outer bands
as was noted earlier, some of the models are already hinting at future development off the East Coast, so once arlene landfalls and spreads her tropical moisture up the east coast, we'll need to keep an eye trained to our east
to all in arlene's path: be safe and try to stay dry!
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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