F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward islands, those in the Hurricane Warning area should rush preparation to completion today. Also 96L east of Beryl with a 70% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)
10.6N 53.9W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 968mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 94LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
Invest 96LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 


General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
      Sun Jun 12 2005 01:13 AM

Terra (and everyone) -- debate's all about making the science better. Global warming is a topic that can polarize even the most brilliant of meteorologists & climatologists -- and it has! -- and one with a lot that remains to be discovered. Compared to many other science, the process of understanding its effects is really in its infancy; we don't have any reliable way of modeling it due to a lack of past data, while similar limitations arise in understanding what is currently going on.

SSTs do have a negative feedback loop, however; that much we have discovered. At around 31 C, something called the convective albedo thermostat kicks in, whereby unorganized convection starts to fire up over the waters. As a result, incoming solar radiation is limited and the convection uses up some of the available energy from the water, thereby reducing SSTs. If overall SSTs were to warm by 1 degree, it is theoretically possible that you could see more/stronger storms, but then you have to consider the impacts upon the entire global circulation. How will it impact the redistribution of heat across the globe? What about our oceanic currents? And the strength/location of midlatitude cyclones? Those are all, to a large degree, questions left unanswered by the computer modeling of warmer SST scenarios, which just consider the SST feedback loop into the storm. It is a series of questions, though, that we will have to answer in the near-future if we are to understand what may or may not happen.

Of course, what could happen if the Earth's system were to be completely changed as a result of global warming is anyone's guess. Physical processes we think we know and understand, not just in meteorology but in a wide array of sciences, may be completely different. It's a matter, however (and in my opinion), of trying to understand what is going on now, what we do know about bits and pieces of the science related to the problem, and how to piece it together with what little data we have to come up with an educated guess (ideally all without special interest groups and/or politicians -- on both sides! -- interfering with the process). We're halfway there.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* OffTopic Moved: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm Lar Sun Jun 12 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming Is A Fallacy KN4LF   Sat Jun 11 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Global Warming Is A Fallacy Keith234   Sat Jun 11 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm wxman007   Sat Jun 11 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm Londovir   Sat Jun 11 2005 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm Terra   Sun Jun 12 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm B.C.Francis   Sun Jun 12 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm Terra   Sun Jun 12 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Lovelock and "Daisy World' B.C.Francis   Sun Jun 12 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Lovelock and "Daisy World' Terra   Sun Jun 12 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Lovelock and "Daisy World' B.C.Francis   Sun Jun 12 2005 05:13 PM
. * * derecho or downdraft B.C.Francis   Wed Jun 22 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: derecho or downdraft Clark   Wed Jun 22 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm Clark   Sun Jun 12 2005 01:13 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 23 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 7089

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center