Bloodstar
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Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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My take on 92L and other features
Tue Jun 14 2005 02:35 AM
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(Standard disclaimer, IANAM... yadda yadda)
Well, at the moment it looks like there are 2 interesting features on the board. The first, most obviously is 92L. There is good mid level turning that remains noticable even in the night time hours, but there is still no evidence of a LLC. Also of interest, it looks like over the last few hours , a piece of energy broke away from the circulation and went racing off to the north east. The center seems to be moving to the eastand away from the shear that's currently giving it fits. It looked like an outflow boundry happened about midnight Zulu. and the north western complex seemed to die down a bit. The piece of energy that was ejected appears like it's going to miss Haiti and head into the Atlantic. from there who knows?
The remaining convection is struggling a bit at this point, partially from shear, partially from the night time convection, however enough is hanging in there to make things interesting in the morning. it's possible there is some sort of LLC around 15.5 N 75W, but I'm hesitant to say so, simply because there is no way to know until a plane can get into the thunderboomers. I'd say there's no way they'd find a depression tomorrow.
An interesting point was made that a possible LLC was forming around 15N 77W, or just to the east and south of the storms. again, this is all little more than speculation on my part, reading those tea leaves so to speak.
Now, is it possible the ejected thunderstorm complex could hold together, and make something in the atlantic? I suppose, but... just seems so... unusual.
Now the pretty pretty wave that just came off of africa, the only thing that is keeping me from absolutely discounting it, most of the energy is south of 10N, which by itself means that most likely it's too close to the equator to form into anything, but it has a better shot down there than north where shear and cold water would kill it (in the east atlantic, anything north of 14N is in sub 25 dec C water). So, it's extremely unlikely, but not a bad one to peek and go, oooh, in a month we'll really start worrying about these suckers.
Collectively, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 shot that something will form from one of these systems, the odds that 2 out of the 3 turn into something tropical or sub tropical is about 100 to 1, and all 3? Sorry, vegas doesn't give odds like large. 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
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