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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Idalia) , Major: 275 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 275 (Idalia) Major: 275 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re:GFS discussion
Mon Jun 20 2005 01:15 AM

Thanks Clark and Coop. Sure is nice to have additional commentary.
I've been looking at the various NOAA Centers and Southern FL NWS AFDs.
All of the above mentioned Centers and Offices including the TAFB (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch), are aware of the GFS forecasting situation in the SE GOM. All of them are calling it 'model feedback' and are tossing the GOM Low pressure development-out the window.
Most of them do mention precipitation being on the increase for the next day or so.
But theyAre Not looking for any development.

From the Hydrological Prediction Center Discussion edited~danielw
...MID LEVEL TROF/LOW FROM MID ATLC INTO GULF OF MEXICO...
FIRST OF ALL... WILL DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THE GFS BRINGS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FL. THUS FAR THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS FOR SUCH A FEATURE. ALSO...NO MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT OF 09Z SREF AND 00Z/06Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT ANY KIND OF DEFINED SFC LOW PROGRESSING NEWD OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE CONSULT THE TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR UPDATED INFO REGARDING CONDITIONS OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND VICINITY...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 20 2005 01:30 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Quiet Weekend Continues	MikeC	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:15 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Domino	Tue Jun 21 2005 03:52 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ftlaudbob	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:58 PM
July, August, September?	Ryan	Tue Jun 21 2005 03:08 PM
Re: July, August, September?	AgentB	Tue Jun 21 2005 04:55 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Cycloneye11	Tue Jun 21 2005 05:35 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Ed in Va	Tue Jun 21 2005 05:40 PM
Re: July, August, September?	MikeG	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:04 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Clark	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:32 PM
look ahead	HanKFranK	Tue Jun 21 2005 04:54 AM
Re: look ahead	doug	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:13 PM
Re: look ahead	rmbjoe1954	Tue Jun 21 2005 11:05 PM
Re: look ahead	lysis-in-TX	Wed Jun 22 2005 01:47 PM
Happy Father's Day	LadyStorm	Sun Jun 19 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Heather	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Happy Father's Day	FlaMommy	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:51 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	LI Phil	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Lysis	Sun Jun 19 2005 06:17 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Steve hirschb.	Mon Jun 20 2005 04:29 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:27 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:03 AM
Re:GFS discussion	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:15 AM
Re:GFS discussion	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 03:13 AM
Re:GFS discussion	Big TK	Mon Jun 20 2005 05:16 AM
Re:AVN/ GFS Model Feedback	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:13 AM
Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	GuppieGrouper	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:19 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Benjamin	Mon Jun 20 2005 03:59 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:00 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	javlin	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:31 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Storm Cooper	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:21 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Rabbit	Mon Jun 20 2005 04:30 PM
Re: BOC in GOM	MikeG	Mon Jun 20 2005 05:01 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	rmbjoe1954	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 04:14 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Benjamin	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Lucasnfl	Sun Jun 19 2005 08:24 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:02 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:22 PM
Re: Eating crow	MapMaster	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	stormchazer	Sun Jun 19 2005 03:10 PM

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