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#Beryl is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane before reaching the Windward islands, those in the Hurricane Warning area should rush preparation to completion today. Also 96L east of Beryl with a 70% chance to develop.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 305 (Idalia) , Major: 305 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 305 (Idalia) Major: 305 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

danielw
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Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)

Re:AVN/ GFS Model Feedback
Mon Jun 20 2005 02:13 AM

That appears to be the same model that we were discussing.
I believe they renamed the AVN to GFS.
Sept-Oct 2002: Name changes: The AVN will be referred to as the Global Forecast System model (GFS).
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html

SUBJECTIVE LIST OF MODEL PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
GFS
When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of QPF over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV).
The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days.

The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS

Location in the GOM still bears watching. In case the model might prove correct.
But as I stated earlier, and I have rechecked most of the Centers, No One Is Calling For Development Of This Area in the GOM.
posted @ 0608Z-02:08 EDT- 0108CDT

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Quiet Weekend Continues	MikeC	Mon Jun 20 2005 02:13 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Domino	Mon Jun 20 2005 11:52 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ftlaudbob	Tue Jun 21 2005 09:33 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Tue Jun 21 2005 09:58 AM
July, August, September?	Ryan	Tue Jun 21 2005 11:08 AM
Re: July, August, September?	AgentB	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:55 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Cycloneye11	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:35 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Ed in Va	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:40 PM
Re: July, August, September?	MikeG	Tue Jun 21 2005 02:04 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Clark	Tue Jun 21 2005 02:32 PM
look ahead	HanKFranK	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:54 AM
Re: look ahead	doug	Tue Jun 21 2005 02:13 PM
Re: look ahead	rmbjoe1954	Tue Jun 21 2005 07:05 PM
Re: look ahead	lysis-in-TX	Wed Jun 22 2005 09:47 AM
Happy Father's Day	LadyStorm	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:27 AM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Heather	Sun Jun 19 2005 09:01 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	FlaMommy	Mon Jun 20 2005 09:51 AM
Re: Happy Father's Day	LI Phil	Sun Jun 19 2005 01:34 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Lysis	Sun Jun 19 2005 02:17 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:13 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	danielw	Sun Jun 19 2005 08:06 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Steve hirschb.	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:29 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 19 2005 08:27 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Clark	Sun Jun 19 2005 09:03 PM
Re:GFS discussion	danielw	Sun Jun 19 2005 09:15 PM
Re:GFS discussion	Clark	Sun Jun 19 2005 11:13 PM
Re:GFS discussion	Big TK	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:16 AM
Re:AVN/ GFS Model Feedback	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 02:13 AM
Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:29 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	GuppieGrouper	Mon Jun 20 2005 09:19 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Benjamin	Mon Jun 20 2005 11:59 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 02:00 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	javlin	Mon Jun 20 2005 08:31 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Storm Cooper	Mon Jun 20 2005 08:21 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Rabbit	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:30 PM
Re: BOC in GOM	MikeG	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:01 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 11:43 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	rmbjoe1954	Sun Jun 19 2005 06:45 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 12:14 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Benjamin	Sun Jun 19 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Lucasnfl	Sun Jun 19 2005 04:24 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 06:02 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 19 2005 06:22 PM
Re: Eating crow	MapMaster	Sun Jun 19 2005 01:30 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	stormchazer	Sun Jun 19 2005 11:10 AM

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