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Tropical Storm Alberto has formed from Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L. Onshore flow creating some surge, wind and heavy rains into TX/MX

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Idalia) , Major: 294 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 294 (Idalia) Major: 294 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

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Posts: 1710

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell
Mon Jun 20 2005 06:00 PM

Benjamin -- that's not where the GFS was/ie showing development; it shows it elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moving across the eastern Gulf.

The GFS still hints at that system developing, which is more likely than not convective feedback. It apparently wants to spin something up later this week too -- something that shows up in the NAM as well because it uses the GFS for it's external grid and the northern Carib. is right along the extent of the NAM's grid -- but I'm not going to put much stock in anything down there right now. My earlier suspiscions were confirmed today by others -- they have changed something in the GFS with regards to the tropics this year -- and until we get a better handle on what it means, I'm willing to write most everything off for now.

There is a bare vortex in the Bay of Campeche now, but moving west against the upper flow and caught in the vicinity of a trough. Waters are warm, yeah, and this is sometimes how you get development...but there's nothing to suggest it is either likely or imminent right now. Too much shear, for one, and a fair amount of dry air to the north, for another. Chalk it up, for now, to something interesting to look at but of no real concern. It might well just be a convectively-induced vortex that was left behind by the convection to the east.

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Quiet Weekend Continues	MikeC	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:00 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Domino	Tue Jun 21 2005 03:52 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ftlaudbob	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Tue Jun 21 2005 01:58 PM
July, August, September?	Ryan	Tue Jun 21 2005 03:08 PM
Re: July, August, September?	AgentB	Tue Jun 21 2005 04:55 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Cycloneye11	Tue Jun 21 2005 05:35 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Ed in Va	Tue Jun 21 2005 05:40 PM
Re: July, August, September?	MikeG	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:04 PM
Re: July, August, September?	Clark	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:32 PM
look ahead	HanKFranK	Tue Jun 21 2005 04:54 AM
Re: look ahead	doug	Tue Jun 21 2005 06:13 PM
Re: look ahead	rmbjoe1954	Tue Jun 21 2005 11:05 PM
Re: look ahead	lysis-in-TX	Wed Jun 22 2005 01:47 PM
Happy Father's Day	LadyStorm	Sun Jun 19 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Heather	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Happy Father's Day	FlaMommy	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:51 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	LI Phil	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Happy Father's Day	Lysis	Sun Jun 19 2005 06:17 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Steve hirschb.	Mon Jun 20 2005 04:29 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Mon Jun 20 2005 12:27 AM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:03 AM
Re:GFS discussion	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:15 AM
Re:GFS discussion	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 03:13 AM
Re:GFS discussion	Big TK	Mon Jun 20 2005 05:16 AM
Re:AVN/ GFS Model Feedback	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:13 AM
Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	danielw	Mon Jun 20 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	GuppieGrouper	Mon Jun 20 2005 01:19 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Benjamin	Mon Jun 20 2005 03:59 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Clark	Mon Jun 20 2005 06:00 PM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	javlin	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:31 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Storm Cooper	Tue Jun 21 2005 12:21 AM
Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell	Rabbit	Mon Jun 20 2005 04:30 PM
Re: BOC in GOM	MikeG	Mon Jun 20 2005 05:01 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	rmbjoe1954	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 19 2005 04:14 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Benjamin	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Lucasnfl	Sun Jun 19 2005 08:24 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	ticka1	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:02 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 19 2005 10:22 PM
Re: Eating crow	MapMaster	Sun Jun 19 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Quiet Weekend Continues	stormchazer	Sun Jun 19 2005 03:10 PM

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