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#Beryl expected to landfall near Matagorda Bay Pre-Dawn Monday as a hurricane.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Idalia) , Major: 312 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 312 (Idalia) Major: 312 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

splitter
Thu Jun 23 2005 07:34 PM

you guys have already touched on the stuff i'm thinking.. mine isn't all that different. energy from the wave currently near 72w is entraining northwestward ahead of the upper low over florida, while the return flow around the surface ridge building near the east coast is banking moisture into the region from the atlantic. the result on a number of models is a quasi-tropical low that drifts up to the carolinas over the weekend. the exact character remains to be seen--it has clear mid-latitude and tropical triggers and will probably acquire at least a somewhat tropical look. dependent on when/how it changes in vertical structure the steering mechanisms will vary.. also the trough may be slower to retreat than models are calling for.
further south the rest of the wave is moving into an improving environment, depending again on how that upper low/trough weakens and lifts/splits. the newer gfs runs are finally starting to show the feature euro has been harping on, though not with the continuity of existance. there is already a convective flare ahead of the advancing wave near cape gracias a Dios (that's thanks to God, not thank you goodbye) at the nic/hon border.. with that look to it that makes us drool. a meso low there at the mid levels might actually be a legit trigger, as the low level easterlies are racing to the north but the flow is plodding out of the south as the westerly backing in the tropical pacific hooks around near central america. slim on the thing anyhow, but as the wave energy moves in and continues nw to the yucatan and gulf, it will be in a potentially improving environment and over some solid warm ssts.
so anyway, thats just a twist on the ideas clark and steve are juggling. the response clock that works out sometimes has a system ready 6-10 after beatriz got going.. that would be june 27-29... in time for the wave energy taking the southerly route. the atlantic low will have a mediocre environment and little time to get kicking, so more emphasis on the gulf going into early next week.
HF 0030z24june

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Nothing to See Here	MikeC	Thu Jun 23 2005 07:34 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	adogg76	Wed Jun 22 2005 10:30 AM
Re: Nothing to See Here	Clark	Wed Jun 22 2005 12:04 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	John3	Wed Jun 22 2005 11:28 AM
Re: Nothing to See Here	MikeG	Wed Jun 22 2005 12:04 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	FlaRebel	Wed Jun 22 2005 12:39 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	Katie	Wed Jun 22 2005 01:36 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	Steve hirschb.	Wed Jun 22 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	Maybe, maybenot	Wed Jun 22 2005 01:37 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	MikeG	Wed Jun 22 2005 02:01 PM
Re: Nothing to See Here	Steve hirschb.	Wed Jun 22 2005 03:36 PM
94L invest	Cycloneye11	Wed Jun 22 2005 03:37 PM
Re: 94L invest	Tazmanian93	Wed Jun 22 2005 04:10 PM
Re: 94L invest	D3m3NT3DVoRT3X	Wed Jun 22 2005 04:35 PM
Re: 94L invest	Rich B	Wed Jun 22 2005 07:00 PM
Re: 94L invest	Clark	Wed Jun 22 2005 07:20 PM
disturbance near nicaragua	AMK	Thu Jun 23 2005 04:55 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Tropics Guy	Thu Jun 23 2005 05:14 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	SteveinLA	Thu Jun 23 2005 05:28 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Clark	Thu Jun 23 2005 06:36 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Big Tk	Thu Jun 23 2005 07:06 PM
splitter	HanKFranK	Thu Jun 23 2005 07:34 PM
Re: splitter	Steve	Thu Jun 23 2005 07:52 PM
Re: splitter	GuppieGrouper	Thu Jun 23 2005 08:39 PM
Re: splitter	Colleen A.	Thu Jun 23 2005 09:13 PM
Re: splitter	Storm Cooper	Thu Jun 23 2005 09:19 PM
Re: splitter	ftlaudbob	Thu Jun 23 2005 10:41 PM
Re: splitter	LisaA	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:10 AM
4th weather	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:29 AM
Re: 4th weather & This Weekend	Colleen A.	Fri Jun 24 2005 10:49 AM
Re: splitter	Jekyhe904	Fri Jun 24 2005 12:40 AM
Re: splitter	hurircaneready	Fri Jun 24 2005 04:21 AM
5 AM EDT	danielw	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:27 AM
Space Coast	Cocoa Beach	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:04 AM
Re: Space Coast	Jekyhe904	Fri Jun 24 2005 12:03 PM
Re: Space Coast	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:10 AM
Re: Space Coast	Steve	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:26 AM
Re: Space Coast	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:33 AM
Re: Space Coast	Colleen A.	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:53 AM
Re: Space Coast	Steve hirschb.	Fri Jun 24 2005 12:02 PM
new thread	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 24 2005 12:05 PM
Re: Space Coast	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:58 AM
Re: Space Coast	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:22 AM
Re: Space Coast	doug	Fri Jun 24 2005 10:50 AM
Re: splitter	Lysis_	Thu Jun 23 2005 09:19 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Jekyhe904	Thu Jun 23 2005 05:32 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Rich B	Thu Jun 23 2005 06:06 PM
Re: disturbance near nicaragua	Storm Cooper	Thu Jun 23 2005 06:33 PM
Re: 94L invest	LONNY307	Thu Jun 23 2005 08:12 AM
Lonny's weekend weather	Katie	Thu Jun 23 2005 01:56 PM
Polk County storms	Katie	Thu Jun 23 2005 02:38 PM
Re: Polk County storms	Wrkn in Orl	Thu Jun 23 2005 03:15 PM
Re: Polk County storms	Clark	Thu Jun 23 2005 03:23 PM
Re: New complex	doug	Thu Jun 23 2005 04:28 PM
Re: Polk County storms	Benjamin	Thu Jun 23 2005 04:04 PM
Re: 94L invest	Clark	Thu Jun 23 2005 10:01 AM
Re: 94L invest	LisaA	Thu Jun 23 2005 08:34 AM
Re: 94L invest	yecatsjg	Thu Jun 23 2005 01:34 PM
Re: 94L invest	B.C.Francis	Thu Jun 23 2005 08:52 AM
Re: 94L invest	tpratch	Thu Jun 23 2005 10:43 AM

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