looks like the strongest support for a surface center is well east of the bahamas, so if it has a successful formation, whatever would be out there would come in a bit further north than the earlier model progs.. say myrtle beach to cape lookout. that'd give it more time over water. better chances for a bret if it develops further out.
weak low near nic/hon coast is still just sitting around. not much upper support there yet (it's coming in from the east), but there's decent low level convergence.
beatriz has faded away in the eastpac, but it looks like calvin is revving up south of acupulco. the pac-atl response from beatriz to 94L worked out ok.. maybe the trend will continue and the new one will have an atlantic correspondence in a few days (perhaps that w carib feature).
on the other hand, it's june.. getting one storm alone is iffy.. two is a stretch.
HF 2236z24june
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