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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: 94L
      Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM

HF...interestingly enough, the MM5 (and on some runs, the GFS) actually keeps that wave a trackable entity -- weak low -- into the central Atlantic. SSTs are well above average there -- marginally favorable across the entire basin S of 15N as of this week, which is the earliest I can remember -- and the subtropical jet has finally begun to move northward, now largely north of 20N.

That said, it'll likely still fizzle, as the warm waters out there are really shallow, but if it is able to hold together (in some way shape or form) to the central Atlantic, it'd meet much more favorable waters. Of course, it'd also meet a lot more shear (as of now), but that could change. The whole area between 15-23 or 25 N from the islands east to about 40W has some of the highest heat content values in the entire basin right now, even moreso than the NW Caribbean. All of it bodes for a quick start to the season, likely once the subtropical jet retreats a bit more and the waters near the coast warm up just a tad more.

We'll see if the MM5 and GFS are catching onto something with this...but alas, I'm off to D.C. for the next week. 94L isn't likely to amount to much -- shear is low but waters there are only marginal, with the baroclinic energy for the other part of the system likely winning out over everything else. The surge of tropical moisture will bring some rains to the southeast coast, but I don't think we'll see any development out of this. There is a weak low-level swirl -- probably not even a complete circulation, but a stretched out swirl -- removed to the west of the deepest convection SSE of Hatteras with perhaps a mid-level vortex on the northeast side of the deepest convection. Just don't see anything getting going there, and as mentioned in the first post -- time isn't on its side.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Area Near the Bahamas HanKFranK Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Rich B   Sat Jun 25 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Skippy   Sat Jun 25 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas GuppieGrouper   Sat Jun 25 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Rich B   Sat Jun 25 2005 03:05 PM
. * * no interest? HanKFranK   Sat Jun 25 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Recon Jamiewx   Sat Jun 25 2005 04:54 PM
. * * 94L Bloodstar   Sat Jun 25 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Re: 94L Storm Cooper   Sat Jun 25 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: 94L GuppieGrouper   Sat Jun 25 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: 94L Rich B   Sat Jun 25 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: 94L HanKFranK   Sun Jun 26 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: 94L Clark   Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Password Request Tazmanian93   Sat Jun 25 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Domino   Sat Jun 25 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Storm Cooper   Sat Jun 25 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Domino   Sat Jun 25 2005 12:58 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Storm Cooper   Sat Jun 25 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Domino   Sat Jun 25 2005 01:25 AM
. * * All Chips on Table dem05   Sat Jun 25 2005 03:00 AM
. * * Re: All Chips on Table dem05   Sun Jun 26 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: All Chips on Table Steve   Sun Jun 26 2005 07:21 PM
. * * Re: All Chips on Table HF gone home   Sun Jun 26 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Re: All Chips on Table LadyStorm   Sat Jun 25 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Bret today? Rich B   Sat Jun 25 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Bret today? Rich B   Sat Jun 25 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas MapMaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Katie   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas MapMaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 09:19 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas HanKFranK   Fri Jun 24 2005 09:41 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Jekyhe904   Fri Jun 24 2005 09:50 PM
. * * GOM? JohnB   Fri Jun 24 2005 10:26 PM
. * * Re: GOM? Steve hirschb.   Fri Jun 24 2005 11:42 PM
. * * Re: GOM? nc cane   Fri Jun 24 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas MapMaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas MapMaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Colleen A.   Fri Jun 24 2005 05:06 PM
. * * Central Florida RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jun 24 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas AgentB   Fri Jun 24 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development MapMaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Wingman51   Fri Jun 24 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development doug   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:25 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development doug   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:45 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Katie   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Mapmaster   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:00 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Pete Creedon   Sun Jun 26 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Storm Cooper   Sun Jun 26 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development HCW   Sun Jun 26 2005 09:44 AM
. * * NW Carrb? MikeG   Sun Jun 26 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Storm Cooper   Sun Jun 26 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Prospero   Sun Jun 26 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 26 2005 03:17 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? HanKFranK   Sun Jun 26 2005 03:26 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Tazmanian93   Sun Jun 26 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Lysis-in-Texas   Sun Jun 26 2005 08:43 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? MapMaster   Sun Jun 26 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Mapmaster   Sun Jun 26 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? and more... h2ocean   Mon Jun 27 2005 12:51 AM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? Lysis-in-Texas   Sun Jun 26 2005 08:45 PM
. * * It is a TD MapMaster   Sun Jun 26 2005 09:22 PM
. * * Re: It is a TD dem05   Sun Jun 26 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: It is a TD Mapmaster   Sun Jun 26 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: It is a TD dem05   Mon Jun 27 2005 02:22 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Steve   Mon Jun 27 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD dem05   Mon Jun 27 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Steve   Mon Jun 27 2005 04:38 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Steve   Mon Jun 27 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Domino   Mon Jun 27 2005 05:42 AM
. * * The 94L system danielwAdministrator   Mon Jun 27 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Tazmanian93   Mon Jun 27 2005 03:49 AM
. * * Re: It is a TD Hurrihj   Sun Jun 26 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: NW Carrb? GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 26 2005 04:29 PM
. * * That's a Tropical Depression Bloodstar   Sun Jun 26 2005 06:17 PM
. * * Re: That's a Tropical Depression HF gone home   Sun Jun 26 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: That's a Tropical Depression Steve   Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development Tazmanian93   Fri Jun 24 2005 08:19 PM
. * * Re: The Area Near the Bahamas Wingman51   Fri Jun 24 2005 04:19 PM

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