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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged:
Posts: 1710

Re: 94L
Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM

HF...interestingly enough, the MM5 (and on some runs, the GFS) actually keeps that wave a trackable entity -- weak low -- into the central Atlantic. SSTs are well above average there -- marginally favorable across the entire basin S of 15N as of this week, which is the earliest I can remember -- and the subtropical jet has finally begun to move northward, now largely north of 20N.

That said, it'll likely still fizzle, as the warm waters out there are really shallow, but if it is able to hold together (in some way shape or form) to the central Atlantic, it'd meet much more favorable waters. Of course, it'd also meet a lot more shear (as of now), but that could change. The whole area between 15-23 or 25 N from the islands east to about 40W has some of the highest heat content values in the entire basin right now, even moreso than the NW Caribbean. All of it bodes for a quick start to the season, likely once the subtropical jet retreats a bit more and the waters near the coast warm up just a tad more.

We'll see if the MM5 and GFS are catching onto something with this...but alas, I'm off to D.C. for the next week. 94L isn't likely to amount to much -- shear is low but waters there are only marginal, with the baroclinic energy for the other part of the system likely winning out over everything else. The surge of tropical moisture will bring some rains to the southeast coast, but I don't think we'll see any development out of this. There is a weak low-level swirl -- probably not even a complete circulation, but a stretched out swirl -- removed to the west of the deepest convection SSE of Hatteras with perhaps a mid-level vortex on the northeast side of the deepest convection. Just don't see anything getting going there, and as mentioned in the first post -- time isn't on its side.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The Area Near the Bahamas	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:38 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Skippy	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:33 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jun 25 2005 02:04 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:05 PM
no interest?	HanKFranK	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:57 PM
Recon	Jamiewx	Sat Jun 25 2005 04:54 PM
94L	Bloodstar	Sat Jun 25 2005 08:20 PM
Re: 94L	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 08:54 PM
Re: 94L	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:01 PM
Re: 94L	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:12 PM
Re: 94L	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 12:07 AM
Re: 94L	Clark	Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM
Password Request	Tazmanian93	Sat Jun 25 2005 11:00 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:12 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:37 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:58 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:08 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:25 AM
All Chips on Table	dem05	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:00 AM
Re: All Chips on Table	dem05	Sun Jun 26 2005 07:03 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	Steve	Sun Jun 26 2005 07:21 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	HF gone home	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:41 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	LadyStorm	Sat Jun 25 2005 09:51 AM
Bret today?	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:35 AM
Re: Bret today?	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 11:10 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:21 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:33 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:40 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:47 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:09 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:19 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:41 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Jekyhe904	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:50 PM
GOM?	JohnB	Fri Jun 24 2005 10:26 PM
Re: GOM?	Steve hirschb.	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:42 PM
Re: GOM?	nc cane	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:53 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:34 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Colleen A.	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:06 PM
Central Florida	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:50 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	AgentB	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:20 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 06:17 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 06:43 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	doug	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:09 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:25 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	doug	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:45 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:46 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:54 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:07 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Mapmaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:00 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:14 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:05 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Pete Creedon	Sun Jun 26 2005 01:07 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 26 2005 01:20 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	HCW	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:44 AM
NW Carrb?	MikeG	Sun Jun 26 2005 02:32 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 26 2005 02:51 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Prospero	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:01 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:17 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:26 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Tazmanian93	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:17 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Lysis-in-Texas	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:43 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	MapMaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:24 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Mapmaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:25 PM
Re: NW Carrb? and more...	h2ocean	Mon Jun 27 2005 12:51 AM
Re: NW Carrb?	Lysis-in-Texas	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:45 PM
It is a TD	MapMaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:22 PM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Sun Jun 26 2005 10:05 PM
Re: It is a TD	Mapmaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 11:01 PM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Mon Jun 27 2005 02:22 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 03:09 AM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:02 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:38 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:42 AM
Re: It is a TD	Domino	Mon Jun 27 2005 05:42 AM
The 94L system	danielw	Mon Jun 27 2005 11:53 AM
Re: It is a TD	Tazmanian93	Mon Jun 27 2005 03:49 AM
Re: It is a TD	Hurrihj	Sun Jun 26 2005 10:33 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 26 2005 04:29 PM
That's a Tropical Depression	Bloodstar	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:17 PM
Re: That's a Tropical Depression	HF gone home	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:48 PM
Re: That's a Tropical Depression	Steve	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:19 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 04:19 PM

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