oh man. there it is over the outer banks... it took too long to form, but put that thing 300 miles to the south and that would have been bret. ssts along the mid atlantic coast aren't warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. but that was close. next place to watch is the bay of campeche and western gulf. the southern part of that tropical wave that split and gave us 94L is moving into the area, with a weak surface trough from west florida down to belize. an upper ridge is building over the area, and a natural barrier to force low level convergence is strung across the region. everything is gummed up, and should continue to be that way as that tropical system develops on the mexican pacific coast. model support is so-so, though... chances of another system before july aren't strong. HF 1621z26june
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