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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Steve
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA

Re: That's a Tropical Depression
Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM

By gummed up, it means there are too many things going on at the same time which generally will prohibit development. For storms to forum /usually/ they need for other aspects of the weather competing for the same energy to resolve.

I like the STDS put out by the NHC today as I think it accurately reflected the picture. However, it sure seemed like a Subtropical Depression based on the visible presentation and the 20-30 windspeeds. I guess everything isn't getting a name, but there was an obvious surface rotation on my favorite radar, the one out of Morehead City, NC earlier this morning.

The southern part of the wave that spawned 94L (as noted by HF) is still pretty active as was expected. I thought the best the northern end could do was low-grade tropical storm and the best the southern end could do was maybe mid-grade. I'm not sure if anything's coming out of this, but things do seem to be following the original ECMWF runs from the middle of last week that had a ripple in the isobars near the Yucatan on Monday with a TS off the UT Coast on Wed. Later runs of the European kept it further and further south and didn't develop anything with it. The jury is still out as it was going to be at least until this weekend before we could tell if anything was going to get in the Gulf or not, and if so, how it might behave. In my mind, with the battle between the southern part of the wave and the EPAC, the EPAC is going to win with the wave basically tracking across the southern Gulf of Mexico and probably into Mexico by mid-week. But there's still an outside chance something casual could develop and threaten the Texas coast. Wait and see mode.

Steve

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
The Area Near the Bahamas	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:38 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Skippy	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:33 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jun 25 2005 02:04 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:05 PM
no interest?	HanKFranK	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:57 PM
Recon	Jamiewx	Sat Jun 25 2005 04:54 PM
94L	Bloodstar	Sat Jun 25 2005 08:20 PM
Re: 94L	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 08:54 PM
Re: 94L	GuppieGrouper	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:01 PM
Re: 94L	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:12 PM
Re: 94L	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 12:07 AM
Re: 94L	Clark	Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM
Password Request	Tazmanian93	Sat Jun 25 2005 11:00 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:12 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:37 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 12:58 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Storm Cooper	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:08 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Domino	Sat Jun 25 2005 01:25 AM
All Chips on Table	dem05	Sat Jun 25 2005 03:00 AM
Re: All Chips on Table	dem05	Sun Jun 26 2005 07:03 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	Steve	Sun Jun 26 2005 07:21 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	HF gone home	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:41 PM
Re: All Chips on Table	LadyStorm	Sat Jun 25 2005 09:51 AM
Bret today?	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 10:35 AM
Re: Bret today?	Rich B	Sat Jun 25 2005 11:10 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:21 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:33 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:40 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:47 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	SkeetoBite	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:09 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:19 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	HanKFranK	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:41 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Jekyhe904	Fri Jun 24 2005 09:50 PM
GOM?	JohnB	Fri Jun 24 2005 10:26 PM
Re: GOM?	Steve hirschb.	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:42 PM
Re: GOM?	nc cane	Fri Jun 24 2005 11:53 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:34 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Colleen A.	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:06 PM
Central Florida	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:50 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	AgentB	Fri Jun 24 2005 05:20 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	MapMaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 06:17 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 06:43 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	doug	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:09 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:25 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	doug	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:45 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:46 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Katie	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:54 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 07:07 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Mapmaster	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:00 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:14 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Storm Hunter	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:05 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Pete Creedon	Sun Jun 26 2005 01:07 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 26 2005 01:20 AM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	HCW	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:44 AM
NW Carrb?	MikeG	Sun Jun 26 2005 02:32 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Storm Cooper	Sun Jun 26 2005 02:51 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Prospero	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:01 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:17 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	HanKFranK	Sun Jun 26 2005 03:26 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Tazmanian93	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:17 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Lysis-in-Texas	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:43 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	MapMaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:24 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	Mapmaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:25 PM
Re: NW Carrb? and more...	h2ocean	Mon Jun 27 2005 12:51 AM
Re: NW Carrb?	Lysis-in-Texas	Sun Jun 26 2005 08:45 PM
It is a TD	MapMaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 09:22 PM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Sun Jun 26 2005 10:05 PM
Re: It is a TD	Mapmaster	Sun Jun 26 2005 11:01 PM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Mon Jun 27 2005 02:22 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 03:09 AM
Re: It is a TD	dem05	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:02 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:38 AM
Re: It is a TD	Steve	Mon Jun 27 2005 04:42 AM
Re: It is a TD	Domino	Mon Jun 27 2005 05:42 AM
The 94L system	danielw	Mon Jun 27 2005 11:53 AM
Re: It is a TD	Tazmanian93	Mon Jun 27 2005 03:49 AM
Re: It is a TD	Hurrihj	Sun Jun 26 2005 10:33 PM
Re: NW Carrb?	GuppieGrouper	Sun Jun 26 2005 04:29 PM
That's a Tropical Depression	Bloodstar	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:17 PM
Re: That's a Tropical Depression	HF gone home	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:48 PM
Re: That's a Tropical Depression	Steve	Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development	Tazmanian93	Fri Jun 24 2005 08:19 PM
Re: The Area Near the Bahamas	Wingman51	Fri Jun 24 2005 04:19 PM

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