Regarding 80F water temps...Yes, systems have developed when water temperatures are less than this, but in the 70's. However, this only happens when the feature is warmer than it's surrounding environment. As a side note "Cliff Clavin Fact", while the surface pressures are higher than "Atmospheric average (1013mb)", it's pressures are lower than the surrounding environment.
With that said and nonetheless, I agree with the NHC on this one. It is not even close to being a TD, STD, TS, or STS. That beautiful represnetation you are seeing in the satellite is a mid level feature. The surface feature is decoupled from this and is weakening off of Duck, NC, while the mid level takes off to North. The book on this one is closed. For a closer look, link to NASA Interactive: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
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