Steve, Thanks for the input. I do have some agreeances here, but I'd like to explain a little more on why I'm so staunch about the NW Carribean, Central, and Eastern Gulf development during the upcoming week. Complicated patterns aren't always prohibitive to development, but lot's of surface low pressure features or small upper air features can really squelch something from happenning.
In the current case, I'm still seeing something that represents a more "classic" pattern. Waves typically slow down in the western carib. as they come up on central america. It is when energy waves pile up that the chances of development increase. You are right, lots going on at the surface and it is complicated. However, notice the change since this morning. Two tropical waves were definable on satellite. One stretching sw to ne from the Yucatan into eastern Cuba, s. Florida and Northeastward. The second ran from Nicaragua through central Cuba and Northward. These features are pilling up from north to south, and it can be noted that the forward segment of the first wave has shifted from NE-SW to N-S from south Florida down into eastern Cuba and South.
This is just the kind of complicated interaction that can start something to spin up under the right conditions. It's just my beilief that things are moving in that direction considering the upper air features and the wave interaction. Additionally, a lot of the cloud matter being seen to the north and west of this area is nothing but upper air debris clouds and moisture from the E-pac, S. Mex and Central America, but nothing I would consider to complicate of surpress possible development further.
Since it is dark, this wave interacation from Sunday Morning to now can be best seen with shortwave.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html Thank you for reading, hope I haven't been long winded
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