i saw the wind speed forecast and it says that the chance of TS in 12 hours is 60%
and to show how rare it is--years with multiple storms in June (since 1950)
1957--TS#1 and Audrey
1959--Beulah and TS#3
1968--Abby, Brenda, and Candy
1982--Alberto and SubTS#1
1986--Andrew and Bonnie
2005-Arlene and Bret?
it is also interesting to note that TD2 failed to become a tropical storm in 1976 (shear), 1977 (shear), 1982 (landfall in Belize shortly after developing), 1983 (shear), 1984 (shear), 1991 (too poorly organized and ran out of water), 1992 (shear), 1994 (inland in SC about 15 minutes after developing), 1999 (inland in Mexico about 1 hour after developing), 2000 (shear and water temps), 2001 (shear), 2003 (shear), 2004 (shear; regenerated 5 days later)
then again Bertha in 2002 was a surprise developer, winds at 30 mph but became a TS right before developing, and this one is better organized than that one
i will venture to say it will be upgraded around 8 or 11 pm
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