I haven't looked at the 12Z's today at all, but last night's ECMWF (European) run even closed off some isobars. While it did the same thing with what became Bret (and was too far north) it was the only model from 6 days out that showed that ripple coming through the Yucatan channel.
I'll look at the models later and see if they're doing anything with the forerunner.
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