that stuff in the sw caribbean is more show than substance for now. it's all well ahead of the approaching wave axis, though it's propagation offshore, the ridging aloft, and the convergence line north of panama indicate that as the wave moves into the western caribbean the environment will support it. nam this morning was still trying to develop a surface trough/low east of the yucatan by the weekend. the playa is showing signs of sharpening today. convection is modest north of the itcz, but you can see cyclonic turning in the low levels and what may be a weak surface low near 34w. off to the sw a strong convergence line is anchoring the leading edge of the wave and augmenting the bulge in the easterly surface flow that the wave can potentially close off against. i really didn't expect to see the level of organization that i'm seeing out of this wave.. it's probably going to be an invest within 24 hrs. how quickly it organizes is tricky since the environment ahead is dry. i think it will stunt the development of a depression until at least late saturday. the water temps don't really start to rise until west of 40w anyway. do i think this thing will develop.. good chance. HF 1745z30june
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