MikeC
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Posts: 4552
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM
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Yep, I still consider a 2 about right. IT did flare up overnight, but it hasn't persisted, and that's one of the main things I key off of. There's a few more things going for it now, development wise, but organization still isn't one of them.
The scale is a measure of how much I think it will develop, usually over 36-48 hours, beyond that I'm not sure, but by then the presense or lack of organization will tell the story.
What I look for when I come up with that numbers, are watching long sat loops, looking at forecasted conditions beyond it, looking at conditions around it, climatology and the time of year, and looking for any signs of persistence. It's just not meeting that right now to get a high "score". Although the forecasted conditions are in its favor, some of the other things aren't now. It's a learning process to pick up on these. I may very well be wrong, but I hope not. I really would rather have nothing to track at all. I very much dislike what these storms can do.
If I'm missing something let everyone know, or if you have a question on why I might say something. I'm very anti-hype in general. I'm not a met, I'm a programmer with a strong interest in not having to deal with storms, but want to know the facts if one does occur.
It sure did look impressive on satellite overnight, but looks aren't everything. I may change it later today if things persist, or I can find more good data. My approach is to look for reasons for it not to develop, rather than to look for ways it could.
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