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Gulf area sitll 50% chance for weak development. Atlantic system dropped off. Rest of basin shut down for now, typical of June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Southwest Caribbean
      Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM

Yep, I still consider a 2 about right. IT did flare up overnight, but it hasn't persisted, and that's one of the main things I key off of. There's a few more things going for it now, development wise, but organization still isn't one of them.

The scale is a measure of how much I think it will develop, usually over 36-48 hours, beyond that I'm not sure, but by then the presense or lack of organization will tell the story.
What I look for when I come up with that numbers, are watching long sat loops, looking at forecasted conditions beyond it, looking at conditions around it, climatology and the time of year, and looking for any signs of persistence. It's just not meeting that right now to get a high "score". Although the forecasted conditions are in its favor, some of the other things aren't now. It's a learning process to pick up on these. I may very well be wrong, but I hope not. I really would rather have nothing to track at all. I very much dislike what these storms can do.

If I'm missing something let everyone know, or if you have a question on why I might say something. I'm very anti-hype in general. I'm not a met, I'm a programmer with a strong interest in not having to deal with storms, but want to know the facts if one does occur.

It sure did look impressive on satellite overnight, but looks aren't everything. I may change it later today if things persist, or I can find more good data. My approach is to look for reasons for it not to develop, rather than to look for ways it could.




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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Southwest Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Steve   Thu Jun 30 2005 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 30 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Thu Jun 30 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Check again   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Robert   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Mapmaster   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Orlando, FL   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 01 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Sat Jul 02 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 11:13 AM
. * * emphasis HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Caribbean Development Rich B   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development recmod   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Orlando, FL   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:55 PM
. * * recon HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:30 PM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: recon schmoo   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:33 PM
. * * Re: recon Lysis-in-Texas   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:26 AM
. * * Re: recon FlaMommy   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:44 PM
. * * alberto/fla HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Keith234   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Big tk   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:14 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:30 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:39 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:37 PM
. * * TD? and the Yucatan Rich B   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:30 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Kevin   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Amazing!! MaoMaster   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Jamiewx   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:12 PM
. * * invests and lamentations HanKFranK   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: invests and lamentations Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: invests and lamentations Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:10 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Rabbit   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Rabbit   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: errata MapMaster   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Active Jamiewx   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:06 PM
. * * TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! recmod   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Big Tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Lysis-   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! -lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: recon GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: recon FlaMommy   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: recon Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 AM
. * * stuff to watch HanKFranK   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:38 AM

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