danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
Sat Jul 02 2005 04:48 AM
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Still watching the Western and Northwestern Caribbean, and the Bay of Campeche' areas for possible development.
Ed posted his 'heads up', (in the 2005 Storm Forum), for a probable "Invest" flight into the Caribbean area in less than 24 hours now.
Overnight water vapor satellite loops are showing not one , but two, mid-to-upper level lows in the Cuba-Yucatan Peninsula region.
Main vortice is rotating N of Grand Cayman at 08Z. With the Tropical Wave that Ed referred to, located SE of Grand Cayman, and adjacent to Jamaica. This vortice is moving slowly toward the WSW toward the Cozumel, MX area.
Second vortice has a more ellipitical shape and has moved from over Belize to near Merida,MX at 08Z. Outflow boundary pushed off the Yucatan into the eastern Bay of Campeche around 04Z, and has all but dissappeared at 08Z. Convection beginning to wrap around the south side of the vortice, over Belize, and back into the southern most Yucatan Penisula area.
Buoys are indicating the usual diurnal barometric changes at 08Z. Nothing spectacular noted. A few may be 1 mb lower than this time yesterday.
It will be interesting to see what happens when, and if the two upper lows meet. Especially with the tropical wave in close proximity.
0944Z update. Upper low just south of the western tip of Cuba, and north of Grand Cayman, appears to be developing high thin cirrus from south clockwise through northwest. I'm not sure if this will qualify as 'outflow', but it definitely indicates the shear is lessening overhead.
Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 02 2005 05:59 AM)
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