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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 283 (Idalia) , Major: 283 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 283 (Idalia) Major: 283 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
invests and lamentations
      Sun Jul 03 2005 05:11 PM

i'm just gonna say louisiana for now. coop probably has the right idea.. eastern part of louisiana. all of the models taking it further west have a weak, near non-entity.. the sort of thing that would get pushed around by the low-level flow and not feel the 500mb level shortwaves to the north. i do reckon it'll be deeper than.. say, 1010 or 1012 mb. my reckoning it gets 48-60hrs over the gulf, with a moderately moist atmospheric layer and the setup for a radial outflow... yes, 1010 mb is a tad high. i think recon will find a depression, and it may reach t.s. this evening before moving onshore. the yucatan is a little hilly, but with plenty of warm water on all sides the system shouldn't lose much organization. pretty sure it will be hurricane cindy when it gets to louisiana later on wednesday.
as for the playa.. weak low jetting along with a strong low level flow, low latitude.. not going to develop like i was thinking. i didn't reckon on the strongest vorticity taking a path towards/along the south american coast. sometimes the drag and differential flow around features like that can help a low close off, but in this case i think it's going to diminish the development threat for some time and delay this thing from developing over the weekend. the globals are showing a weak low or just tracking the upper part of this disturbance across the caribbean to near jamaica. i'm not sure what to make of it.. at it's current breakneck pace, even with a supportive upper pattern, it's hard to see it organizing much until it slows. the progress of the wave should start to slow tue/wed as it nears the central caribbean, with the upstream effects of the upper ridge over florida (upper weakness on it's east flank) and possibly the effects of what i think will be cindy at the time. if this one develops, it would probably be a threat to florida... so those of you who like to lament that florida is ever-threatened (you who live on a flat peninsula that sticks out into hurricane-infested waters!), keep a sideways glance on it. i'd give it 1/4 right now for development over the next 4 days.
other 'n all that, things are peachy.
HF 1803z03july

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Southwest Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 03 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Steve   Thu Jun 30 2005 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 30 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Thu Jun 30 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:48 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Check again   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Clark   Fri Jul 01 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Robert   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Mapmaster   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Orlando, FL   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 01 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Sat Jul 02 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean Tazmanian93   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 02 2005 11:13 AM
. * * emphasis HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:37 PM
. * * Caribbean Development Rich B   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development recmod   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Orlando, FL   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 05:55 PM
. * * recon HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:30 PM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: recon schmoo   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:33 PM
. * * Re: recon Lysis-in-Texas   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:35 PM
. * * Re: recon Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:26 AM
. * * Re: recon FlaMommy   Sat Jul 02 2005 09:44 PM
. * * alberto/fla HanKFranK   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Keith234   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Big tk   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:00 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:14 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:30 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Clark   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:39 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:37 PM
. * * TD? and the Yucatan Rich B   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:30 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:52 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan rmbjoe1954   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:21 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Kevin   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Amazing!! MaoMaster   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:30 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 03 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Jamiewx   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Hurric   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:12 PM
. * * invests and lamentations HanKFranK   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: invests and lamentations Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: invests and lamentations Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 04:10 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:15 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan maybe maybe not   Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Rabbit   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 05:59 PM
. * * Re: TD? and the Yucatan Rabbit   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Re: errata MapMaster   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:34 PM
. * * Active Jamiewx   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:06 PM
. * * TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! recmod   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Kevin   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Big Tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:35 AM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! Lysis-   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!! -lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Re: alberto/fla Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Keith234   Sun Jul 03 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: recon GuppieGrouper   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: recon FlaMommy   Sat Jul 02 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Re: recon Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Development Storm Cooper   Sat Jul 02 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Southwest Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 AM
. * * stuff to watch HanKFranK   Fri Jul 01 2005 03:38 AM

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