HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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invests and lamentations
Sun Jul 03 2005 01:11 PM
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i'm just gonna say louisiana for now. coop probably has the right idea.. eastern part of louisiana. all of the models taking it further west have a weak, near non-entity.. the sort of thing that would get pushed around by the low-level flow and not feel the 500mb level shortwaves to the north. i do reckon it'll be deeper than.. say, 1010 or 1012 mb. my reckoning it gets 48-60hrs over the gulf, with a moderately moist atmospheric layer and the setup for a radial outflow... yes, 1010 mb is a tad high. i think recon will find a depression, and it may reach t.s. this evening before moving onshore. the yucatan is a little hilly, but with plenty of warm water on all sides the system shouldn't lose much organization. pretty sure it will be hurricane cindy when it gets to louisiana later on wednesday.
as for the playa.. weak low jetting along with a strong low level flow, low latitude.. not going to develop like i was thinking. i didn't reckon on the strongest vorticity taking a path towards/along the south american coast. sometimes the drag and differential flow around features like that can help a low close off, but in this case i think it's going to diminish the development threat for some time and delay this thing from developing over the weekend. the globals are showing a weak low or just tracking the upper part of this disturbance across the caribbean to near jamaica. i'm not sure what to make of it.. at it's current breakneck pace, even with a supportive upper pattern, it's hard to see it organizing much until it slows. the progress of the wave should start to slow tue/wed as it nears the central caribbean, with the upstream effects of the upper ridge over florida (upper weakness on it's east flank) and possibly the effects of what i think will be cindy at the time. if this one develops, it would probably be a threat to florida... so those of you who like to lament that florida is ever-threatened (you who live on a flat peninsula that sticks out into hurricane-infested waters!), keep a sideways glance on it. i'd give it 1/4 right now for development over the next 4 days.
other 'n all that, things are peachy.
HF 1803z03july
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