Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean

A slowing from 20mph down to 13mph, gradually over time, is more indicative of the system actually slowing down and not wobbles in the storm's path. It's reached an area where the steering currents are not as strong as they were towards the east; this motion should continue for another day or so before accelerating just slightly. However, any slowing and/or any hint of the storm becoming elongated north-south are prime indicators of a northward turn either in progress or about to occur.

Don't have time for a full update, but will leave you all with this: watch the shortwave current moving SE over central Kansas. It, coupled with the weak vortex near Dallas, are going to be the prime factors that influence Dennis to move north -- or not move north -- over the coming days. If the Kansas vortex continues to dive southward, the trough behind Cindy is going to become more amplified and likely capture Dennis before the models are predicting; the Dallas vortex may help this occur. If it begins to move towards the east, with the flow, Dennis should continue on a NW path to landfall in Louisiana. There is impetus for both scenarios to occur, but which one actually plays out remains to be seen. Right now, I would begin to believe the former rather than the latter, based off of synoptic trends and looking upstream over the northern Rockies, but there is some indication for the latter to occur as well.

The subtropical ridge is a bit weaker today than it was yesterday, though is pinched in the eastern Gulf by the remnants of Cindy's circulation. It extends to the Yucutan on its southern/southwestern extent, but only to Cedar Key, FL on the northern/northwestern side of things. These shortwaves should help keep the former in place and influence the latter; how much of this occurs will determine where the storm goes. Dennis bumping into it may play a role as well. There's still the chance of it slowing/stalling in the SE Gulf in 3-4 days, particularly if it gets caught outside of the influence of the ridge and the shortwave troughs, but I still don't consider it likely.

Do feel pretty confident, however, in saying that the GFS & UKMET are definitely on the west side of things, and the Canadian model is on the east side of things (though it is too fast). Slight ridging appears to be building over the intermountain western U.S., which would imply slight troughing along the east coast and a more northerly track for the storm, but again -- it's all about how much of an impact it has on Dennis. I can say, though, that as long as this giant upper low sits over the Pacific northwest of Hawaii, the pattern isn't going to shift greatly for awhile. Not exactly the greatest news for down the line into the season, though it'll likely weaken/break out before too long (just off of climatological factors alone).

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