Quote: I am not sure that this discussion clears up a whole lot. I have been telling my sis in Gulfport to say goodbye to Cindy and get herself ready for Dennis.
I agree, from NHC 11PM The initial motion estimate is 300/13. There are no changes to previous track forecast or reasoning. The models remain in strong agreement that the subtropical ridge currently extending east-west across the Florida Peninsula will remain intact through 60-72 hours. This should keep Dennis moving west-northwestward through 72 hours. After that...however... the models vary significantly on how the mid-latitude flow pattern evolves across the central and western U.S....which ultimately has an impact on the steering flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Half of the models build a high amplitude ridge over the Great Lakes and southwestward into the Southern Plains...while the other models like the nam...Canadian...GFDL... and NOGAPS have less ridging and more troughing over the western and central Gulf. Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly to the right.Given this uncertainty in the longer range...the official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track
Looks like NHC is punting after 72 hours...will someone flip a coin?
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