dennis might dodge at the last minute like charley and ivan, but it looks like it wont miss jamaica right now. pressure has been falling ~1.5mb an hr. if it gets there in the early afternoon, that'll put it around 957mb.. with a continuous steady fall. tough day ahead for that island. if jamaica takes the storm down a notch, the forecast track will shift west.. east if it bypasses north (looking unlikely right now). u.s. landfall intensity is tricky, since these things like to weaken before coming in. lots of the globals don't know what to do with it after a day inland, so it may end up stalling in the mid mississippi valley over to oklahoma or something and raining like hell all week. keep that scenario in mind if you're inland. cindy is spawning some severe weather here and there and having it's center elongate.. moving too quickly to cause catastrophic rains, perhaps. the eastern foothills of the blue ridge look to get the worst of it. after cindy moves off the NE coast models show it entraining in this deep layer cold low that spawns near the canadian maritimes and drops sw towards the northeast u.s. coastal waters.. that is an interesting looking feature. it may be a summertime noreaster in store for folks up there.. going to keep an eye on how far south models are progging it since it's that time of year. one other feature.. the wave that came off africa wed. is freakin huge. it looks like just a big pulse on the monsoon trough, and its leading edge is sweeping a huge flare of convection west along the itcz. it isn't coherent.. but something that energetic will need to be watched as it moves west. got to see how much convection persists back near the actual wave. the 'flare' it sent out may active the weak waves ahead of it, cause them to perk up a little. low to nil probability of development out there in the near term, though. HF 0716z07july
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