I'd like to reiterate what Jason said: while short-term wobbles may be very important right near landfall, the difference between going north or south of Jamaica likely will not play a large role in determining the final landfall position of this storm.
That said, I think that unless the brief wobble on the latest IR frames become more of a pronounced movement, Dennis will pass south of Jamaica by a short distance on Thursday. This will put the island, however, in the northern half of the storm, featuring some of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall amounts out of the storm. It's certainly not a pleasant scenario, but perhaps slightly better than a direct hit. The upper-level flow pattern is such that the storm should continue on a heading right around WNW for the next day to two days, possibly clipping the coast of Jamaica were it not for terrain effects that seem to take hold as it nears the island. There's still a chance of it moving over the west side of the island, but I do feel that the storm will largely pass south of Jamaica.
The eyewall is becoming better defined on satellite imagery and, barring a landfall, this could be the beginning parts of a period of rapid intensification of the storm. The upper-level conditions are favorable, including having an upper-low well to the east to enhance outflow, and water temperatures are certainly warm. Dry air is negligible now that it has passed Hispaniola and the storm is sufficiently well organized to be able to tap into the favorable conditions. Major hurricane status is not out of the realm of possibility for late Thursday, assuming current trends hold and the storm stays offshore. More likely, something around 100-105mph by late tonight will be felt along the Jamaican shore.
Still feel the NHC track out to day 5 is a good forecast at this point in time. I will be interested to see the 06z and 12z runs of the models, however, as they will be the first ones to incorporate upper-air data from the periphery of the storm. TWC had one of the guys in the plane on the phone earlier tonight, but it was a botched interview due to the fact that they still believed he was in the storm despite him saying otherwise. Nevertheless, those runs -- especially the 12z set -- should have that data incorporated within them.
I don't expect any drastic changes, unless the current strength of the ridge is being under- or overestimated. If the latter is true, the tracks could be shifted left...if the former is true, they could be shifted right. I don't think they sampled the current conditions near Florida or over the south-central US, however, so that data will be limited to the US upper-air network and satellite observations; thus, I don't expect many changes to come out of the new runs...but it will help to firm up the synoptic reasoning for whatever track is forecast.
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