I have my own non-technical theory over the lag in intensity forecasting. Avoiding widespread panic is a major factor in determining intensity forecast. I believe raw data is virtually ignored at times in favor of "keeping the peace."
While they urge calm, evacuation, etc. They don't necessarily like to advise us that a cat 2 is likely to become a cat 4 within a couple of hours. I don't believe this affects the trajectory forecast, but do believe in greatly impacts the official intensity forecasts.
This is strictly my opinion after having watched the news media and compared it to the actual raw data on hurricanes since 1992. They often don't match up.
-Bev
Quote: <snip>... In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.
-------------------- Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
0 registered and 297 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 64770
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: FSU Superensemble
Edit
Reply
Quote
