It's only a bias if it doesn't verify and the storm comes in further west!
It has been on the right side of the guidance, only matched by the Canadian model, but for three straight runs of both models now, they have been consistant to within ~25 miles on a track, the Canadian up the west coast and the FSUMM5 to the St. George Island area. We included the bogus vortex in the model for Dennis last night to improve its initial representation; it brought it to ~950mb at landfall just southwest of Tallahassee, something that would prove to be the ultimate disaster scenario for this region.
I will try to update on the current status of the storm in a couple of hours; all of my satellite imagery is either old (NASA's servers must be down) or not loading (NHC is probably getting slammed), so I'm not really in a position to comment. Let's see where the rest of the 6z and all of the 12z models go with this thing...we might be able to narrow something down a bit further if trends continue.
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