Quote: You can kind of see the ridge east of florida in this image. If it builds westward it could either force the storm more westward, or trap it to let it meander a bit and then escape to the Northeast. If it weakens or receeds, it would allow for more easterly movement. It's all speculation though. I'm not one of the Mets (Sky Blue names now!) so I'm out of my leauge on this talk.
I think most of the guidance indicates a weakening/eastward shift of the bermuda ridge. The UKMET model seems to be an outlier now compared to the GFDL, FSUMM5, GFS, NOGAPS, & Canadian. The european model is the only one now showing a stronger ridge & thus it pushes the storm more NW into NO. While the ridge appears to be weakening, the track of Dennis will tend to slide along its western perhipery. I don't see anything that causes the ridge to completely collaspe or be shoved dramtically eastward - such as a large mid-latitude trof. So the storm will likely "turn" north at some point, not hook NE like Charley. Where it turns north of course is the million dollar (or should I say billion dollar question). Current trends suggest somewhere west of key west but it could be as far east as the middle keys, which would drive it northward up the center of the peninsula.
0 registered and 729 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 53057
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Big Time Dennis
Edit
Reply
Quote
