Quote: I dont mean this to question anyone's knowledge but my own. Yesterday, when all of the models were saying similar thngs everyone seemed very suspicious. Now it seems that more people are seeing that as evidence that they models are somewhat verifying each other. What changed?
Thanks again for helping all of us who don't know muc understand and stay on guard.
The models have shown a remarkable consistency for plotting Dennis' track over the last 2 or 3 days. All of the guidance correctly predicted that Dennis would slide between Jamaica and Haiti and be somewhere south of the Cuban coast through tonite. However, beyond the next 12-24 hours, there have been some fairly wild swings (i.e. GFS yesterday in NO, today having Panama City). The most consistent models, ironically, have been the ones farthest east (Canadian), FSUMM5, and the one farthest west (UKMET). The Canadian moves Dennis N-NW up the peninsula just inside the west coast and the UKMET has a landfall somewhere west of NO. What drives people like me (& others) crazy is not seeing a consistent trend in the models over the last 24 hours. When we say trend we mean, they're all adjusting their tracks in the same direction (east or west) and the disparity in predicted paths narrows (window gets smaller and smaller). Right now we have a major hurricane that is likely to strike somewhere in the GOM within the next 72 hours - but we have this huge window from the west side of peninsula to west of NO. This absolutely must be drivin the boys at NHC nuts! Thats why I think they've just decided to default the 72 hour projection & wait till the models settle down. What's really scary is if the Canadian is correct? If so, Major Hurricane conditions might be experienced in less than 36 hours along a good portion of FLs west coast.
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