Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
302 (Idalia)
, Major:
302 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia)
Major:
302 (Idalia)
Colleen -- I think they are tempering their forecasts with respect to the intermediate model runs (6z, 18z) because of it, but perhaps not entirely discounting the data. They temper their forecast changes with regards to the models normally, but perhaps a bit more so here.
The models could also be picking up on something else -- like the things I noted in the current blog post -- but until the full suite of 00z runs comes out, it'll be tough to tell.
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