F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Recon has departed Keesler to check out #93L in the SW Gulf. #92L is now just inland along SE GA coast. June systems can dump lots of rain.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 1710
Re: 00z runs so far
      Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM

Well, it looks like the models are drawing battle lines right now -- some near Biloxi, others eastern/central Florida panhandle, with very little middle ground right now. This is where the forecasters earn their dollars -- why have the models shifted, what is going on, what will happen in the short-term, and ultimately...where is the storm going to make landfall?

On the Canadian model: surprised at the shift; in fact, surprised probably isn't the right word. I have no idea why it suddenly shifted, but it is something to watch. When models shift around, either something drastic has changed, or they really don't know what is going to happen. My bet is on the latter right now.

It's going to be a game of cat & mouse with the shortwaves and the strength of the ridge. The UWisconsin analyses show the westward extension into the SE Gulf, but then a sharp turn back towards the Big Bend area. This is confirmed by water vapor imagery. If Dennis is going to move WNW across Cuba, it's got to turn west now; it's already moving on a steady northwest path and looks ready to make a second landfall in the next couple of hours.

A series of shortwaves is lines up along the Rockies, ready to dive southward, enhanced by mesoscale convective complexes that fire each night along the frontrange. How far south will they reach, and how strong will they be? There's evidence to believe that they will pick up Dennis; there's also evidence to believe that they might not. Still, the emphasis of before that nowhere between New Orleans and S. Florida is safe rings even more true this early morning. I still believe a Florida landfall is likely, but as mentioned before -- no one in the aforementioned zone should be letting their guard down.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Magic Hat   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:32 AM
. * * The West Coast will still be somewhat affected Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:17 AM
. * * Looks to be turning more northerly RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
. * * update twizted sizter   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:21 AM
. * * Recon Plan of the Day Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Xavier   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Polk County,FL links danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Polk County,FL links geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM
. * * Cuba Map limks danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:18 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:39 AM
. * * 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:17 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:24 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited javlin   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:22 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:29 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:06 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:25 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:33 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:38 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:34 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:01 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM
. * * 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:59 AM
. * * Dennis Track and Windfield recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis Track and Windfield Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:07 AM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:15 AM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:17 AM
. * * Slow down ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:30 AM
. * * Warnings for Central Florida recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Katie   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida B.C.Francis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Vortex Message... 938 Millibars! recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:28 AM
. * * Special NHC Statement recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement AgentB   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:48 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement WeatherNut   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:51 AM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:19 AM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery 317288   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:18 AM
. * * SW Florida observations AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: SW Florida observations msmith43   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Mobile Hit tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement palmetto   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:54 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Thunder   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:57 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM
. * * polar effect ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: polar effect Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: polar effect Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:54 AM
. * * Re: polar effect FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: polar effect VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: polar effect trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM
. * * maybe this is the one everyone has always feared Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:41 AM
. * * well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:22 AM
. * * Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to mbfly   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:27 AM
. * * looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:25 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:00 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Dennis the menace Rich B   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Dennis the menace OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:03 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:55 AM
. * * Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:38 AM
. * * NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba HanKFranK   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:36 AM
. * * NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM
. * * 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:01 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:58 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SeeSaw99   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Lisa NC   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:47 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:57 PM
. * * Canadian Global shows MS hit? Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba cjzydeco   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Breeezy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Maggie'sMom   Thu Jul 07 2005 11:50 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 1988 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Thread views: 43650

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center