Well, it looks like the models are drawing battle lines right now -- some near Biloxi, others eastern/central Florida panhandle, with very little middle ground right now. This is where the forecasters earn their dollars -- why have the models shifted, what is going on, what will happen in the short-term, and ultimately...where is the storm going to make landfall?
On the Canadian model: surprised at the shift; in fact, surprised probably isn't the right word. I have no idea why it suddenly shifted, but it is something to watch. When models shift around, either something drastic has changed, or they really don't know what is going to happen. My bet is on the latter right now.
It's going to be a game of cat & mouse with the shortwaves and the strength of the ridge. The UWisconsin analyses show the westward extension into the SE Gulf, but then a sharp turn back towards the Big Bend area. This is confirmed by water vapor imagery. If Dennis is going to move WNW across Cuba, it's got to turn west now; it's already moving on a steady northwest path and looks ready to make a second landfall in the next couple of hours.
A series of shortwaves is lines up along the Rockies, ready to dive southward, enhanced by mesoscale convective complexes that fire each night along the frontrange. How far south will they reach, and how strong will they be? There's evidence to believe that they will pick up Dennis; there's also evidence to believe that they might not. Still, the emphasis of before that nowhere between New Orleans and S. Florida is safe rings even more true this early morning. I still believe a Florida landfall is likely, but as mentioned before -- no one in the aforementioned zone should be letting their guard down.
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