Londovir -- much of that is related to the bogus (re: "fake" vortex) used to initialize the storm in the model. It cannot always handle such a strong storm input into the model -- this is true of any model that employs a bogus vortex -- and takes some time, usually about 12hr, to stabilize around a model solution. I wouldn't read too much into the intensity projection out of the MM5 until the model takes the storm into the Gulf.
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