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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Dennis and Cuba
      Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM

Looking at the radar presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if Dennis shoots for the Bay of Pigs, perhaps just north of the Island of Youth and cuts the western peninsula.

I keep thinking back to the models (and I know we've been talking about them a lot and how they change) that originally called for Dennis to go through western Cuba, and for awhile today it looked like a Cuban bisection was in the works (east to west). If the ridge built back up in time, it might be enough to depress Dennis' northward movement and keep him back on a WNW track that would shoot the gap I mentioned above and bring him over very little land whatsoever.

Oddly enough, the FSU MM5 back around the 12Z/0705 run took it in that general direction. Like I said, it'll be worth studying after the fact to see which models caught on to which legs of the true path for future analysis purpose.

I'm thinking, though, that we'll know about 65% certainty where Dennis is going by the 2pm advisory Friday. And I'm thinking (with nothing but a math degree to save my soul) that it's going to be a panhandle event of some sort...but I wish it would die off and fizzle, much as that won't happen.

Oh, and once again the local weather guys on TV were showing a map with supposed GOM water temps, and it was all colored in as being in the 89-91 degree range. I've been tempted to write them an email asking what their source is, since every darned buoy/ship out in the GOM is reporting nothing more than about 86 at the highest, and most around 84....

--------------------
Londovir

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Magic Hat   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:32 PM
. * * The West Coast will still be somewhat affected Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Looks to be turning more northerly RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
. * * update twizted sizter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Recon Plan of the Day Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Xavier   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:08 AM
. * * Polk County,FL links danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: Polk County,FL links geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:57 AM
. * * Cuba Map limks danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM
. * * 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited javlin   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM
. * * 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Dennis Track and Windfield recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Track and Windfield Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:15 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Slow down ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Warnings for Central Florida recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Katie   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida B.C.Francis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Vortex Message... 938 Millibars! recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Special NHC Statement recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement AgentB   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement WeatherNut   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery 317288   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:18 PM
. * * SW Florida observations AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: SW Florida observations msmith43   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Mobile Hit tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement palmetto   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Thunder   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:11 PM
. * * polar effect ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: polar effect Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: polar effect Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: polar effect FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: polar effect VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: polar effect trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:39 PM
. * * maybe this is the one everyone has always feared Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
. * * well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to mbfly   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:27 PM
. * * looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Dennis the menace Rich B   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Dennis the menace OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:38 AM
. * * NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba HanKFranK   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:13 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:36 AM
. * * NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
. * * 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:00 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:01 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SeeSaw99   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Lisa NC   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM
. * * Canadian Global shows MS hit? Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba cjzydeco   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Breeezy   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:32 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Maggie'sMom   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:50 AM

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