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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Londovir
Weather Guru

Reged:
Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL

Re: Dennis and Cuba
Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM

Looking at the radar presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if Dennis shoots for the Bay of Pigs, perhaps just north of the Island of Youth and cuts the western peninsula.

I keep thinking back to the models (and I know we've been talking about them a lot and how they change) that originally called for Dennis to go through western Cuba, and for awhile today it looked like a Cuban bisection was in the works (east to west). If the ridge built back up in time, it might be enough to depress Dennis' northward movement and keep him back on a WNW track that would shoot the gap I mentioned above and bring him over very little land whatsoever.

Oddly enough, the FSU MM5 back around the 12Z/0705 run took it in that general direction. Like I said, it'll be worth studying after the fact to see which models caught on to which legs of the true path for future analysis purpose.

I'm thinking, though, that we'll know about 65% certainty where Dennis is going by the 2pm advisory Friday. And I'm thinking (with nothing but a math degree to save my soul) that it's going to be a panhandle event of some sort...but I wish it would die off and fizzle, much as that won't happen.

Oh, and once again the local weather guys on TV were showing a map with supposed GOM water temps, and it was all colored in as being in the 89-91 degree range. I've been tempted to write them an email asking what their source is, since every darned buoy/ship out in the GOM is reporting nothing more than about 86 at the highest, and most around 84....

--------------------
Londovir

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:12 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:15 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Wxwatcher2	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Magic Hat	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:32 PM
The West Coast will still be somewhat affected	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Tropics Guy	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 PM
Looks to be turning more northerly	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:31 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	bn765	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
update	twizted sizter	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 PM
Recon Plan of the Day	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Xavier	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:08 AM
Polk County,FL links	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM
Re: Polk County,FL links	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:57 AM
Cuba Map limks	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:18 AM
Re: Cuba Map limks	rmbjoe1954	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM
5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:17 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	doug	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:55 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:24 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	javlin	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:16 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	doug	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:47 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:47 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:40 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:29 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:53 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:16 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:25 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:19 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:38 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Ed G	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:54 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:58 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Shalafi	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:08 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Ed G	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM
8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:59 AM
Dennis Track and Windfield	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 PM
Re: Dennis Track and Windfield	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:07 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:15 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:17 PM
Slow down	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 PM
Warnings for Central Florida	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Ricreig	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Katie	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:18 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:10 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	TDW	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	emilywiseman	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	B.C.Francis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Shalafi	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Vortex Message... 938 Millibars!	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 PM
Special NHC Statement	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	AgentB	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	WeatherNut	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:51 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	AdvAutoBob	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:19 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:22 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	317288	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:18 PM
SW Florida observations	AdvAutoBob	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:44 PM
Re: SW Florida observations	msmith43	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	emilywiseman	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:36 PM
Mobile Hit	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	palmetto	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	TDW	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Ricreig	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	trinibaje	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:04 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	bn765	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:54 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Thunder	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:11 PM
polar effect	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 PM
Re: polar effect	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 PM
Re: polar effect	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:54 PM
Re: polar effect	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:28 PM
Re: polar effect	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: polar effect	trinibaje	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:39 PM
maybe this is the one everyone has always feared	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 PM
Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to	mbfly	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:27 PM
looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:07 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:00 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:30 AM
Dennis the menace	Rich B	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
Re: Dennis the menace	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM
Re: Cuba Map limks	rmbjoe1954	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:38 AM
NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:51 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:53 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:02 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	HanKFranK	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:25 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ohioaninmiss	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SkeetoBite	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:34 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:50 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:13 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:22 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:27 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:42 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:04 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:24 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:28 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:36 AM
NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:14 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:02 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
00z runs so far	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:00 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:08 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:01 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:52 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:16 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SkeetoBite	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:58 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:23 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:56 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SeeSaw99	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Lisa NC	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:43 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Frank P	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:47 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:14 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	abyrd	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:22 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	gavsie	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM
Canadian Global shows MS hit?	Frank P	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	cjzydeco	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	gavsie	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	G. J.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	G. J.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:10 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Breeezy	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:28 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	abyrd	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:32 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ohioaninmiss	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Maggie'sMom	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:50 AM

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