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Alberto moving into Mexico, but large windfield causing surge flooding along Texas Coast. Also Invest 92L now being tracked east of the Bahamas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Idalia) , Major: 295 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 295 (Idalia) Major: 295 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

doug
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl

Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited
Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM

It is time to put away the models as they have told us everything we need to know....Dennis' motion and the models have been projecting an exit off Cuba at 81-82 now for at least a day and a half...nothing will change on that end of the picture.
The critical area remains the ridge and particularly the western and NW side...WV pix now being processed of this area arepredictive of the future impact the various synoptic features will have on that ridge. The southern part of the ridge has reasserted itself and is very vigorous.
As it stands now the NHC track is verified up to the panahndle, and suggestive of a more eastern land fall nearer Apalachecola...however that depends on the resiliance of the trough barrier..it is possible and I think part of the NHC's thinking that Dennis as a Cat 3 or 4 will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region and will push that trough barrier north and west.
The trough on its southern reaches is pushing east and there is new energy from the NW diving down into Texas but that seems to flatten toward the east as it approaches the GOM. Don't look for the trough to further weaken the ridge on the NW today.
Anyway this is what I am going to watch all day...and disregard the models from here on until finis...
Sorry panhandle...as we are used to here any more hunker down.
If more people would do this kind of observation at this stage of an approaching storm at least for contingency planning we may avoid the OOPS factor so significant in Charley last year...some people here did and clearly said even before Charley crossed western Cuba that the Port Charlotte area was where the currents seemed to be pointing..too much reliance on the models created false impressions.

--------------------
doug

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:12 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:15 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Wxwatcher2	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Magic Hat	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:32 PM
The West Coast will still be somewhat affected	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Tropics Guy	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 PM
Looks to be turning more northerly	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:31 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	bn765	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
update	twizted sizter	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 PM
Recon Plan of the Day	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Xavier	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:08 AM
Polk County,FL links	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM
Re: Polk County,FL links	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:57 AM
Cuba Map limks	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:18 AM
Re: Cuba Map limks	rmbjoe1954	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM
5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:17 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	doug	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:55 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:24 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	javlin	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:16 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	doug	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:47 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:47 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:40 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:29 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:53 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	geekicane	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:16 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:25 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:19 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:38 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Ed G	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:54 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:58 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Shalafi	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:08 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Ed G	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM
8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:59 AM
Dennis Track and Windfield	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 PM
Re: Dennis Track and Windfield	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:07 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:15 PM
Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:17 PM
Slow down	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 PM
Warnings for Central Florida	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:24 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Ricreig	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Katie	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:18 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:10 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	TDW	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	emilywiseman	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:23 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	B.C.Francis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 PM
Re: Warnings for Central Florida	Shalafi	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Vortex Message... 938 Millibars!	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 PM
Special NHC Statement	recmod	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	AgentB	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	WeatherNut	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:51 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	AdvAutoBob	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:19 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:22 PM
Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery	317288	Fri Jul 08 2005 02:18 PM
SW Florida observations	AdvAutoBob	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:44 PM
Re: SW Florida observations	msmith43	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	emilywiseman	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:36 PM
Mobile Hit	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	palmetto	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	TDW	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Jax Chris	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:39 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Ricreig	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	trinibaje	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:04 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	bn765	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	nl	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:54 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Lysis	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	Thunder	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:11 PM
polar effect	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 PM
Re: polar effect	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 PM
Re: polar effect	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:54 PM
Re: polar effect	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:28 PM
Re: polar effect	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: polar effect	trinibaje	Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	MikeC	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Special NHC Statement	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:39 PM
maybe this is the one everyone has always feared	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 PM
Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to	mbfly	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:27 PM
looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM	Rick on boat in Mobile	Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 PM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	tpratch	Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Kevin	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:07 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 10:00 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:30 AM
Dennis the menace	Rich B	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
Re: Dennis the menace	OrlandoDan	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM
Re: Cuba Map limks	rmbjoe1954	Fri Jul 08 2005 08:38 AM
NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:51 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:53 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:02 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	HanKFranK	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:25 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ohioaninmiss	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SkeetoBite	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:34 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:50 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:13 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:22 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:27 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:42 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:04 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:24 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:28 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:36 AM
NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL	tornado00	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:14 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	berserkr	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 06:02 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
00z runs so far	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:00 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:08 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	FlaMommy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:01 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
Re: 00z runs so far	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:52 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:16 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SkeetoBite	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Londovir	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:58 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Terra	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	RedingtonBeachGuy	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:23 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	scottsvb	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:56 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	SeeSaw99	Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Lisa NC	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:43 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Frank P	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:47 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	WeatherNLU	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	danielw	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:14 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Storm Hunter	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:30 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Colleen A.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	abyrd	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:22 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ftlaudbob	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	gavsie	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Ron Basso	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM
Canadian Global shows MS hit?	Frank P	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	cjzydeco	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	gavsie	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	G. J.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:21 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	VandyBrad	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	G. J.	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:10 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Breeezy	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Clark	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:28 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	abyrd	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:32 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	ohioaninmiss	Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Dennis and Cuba	Maggie'sMom	Fri Jul 08 2005 03:50 AM

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