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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited
      Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM

It is time to put away the models as they have told us everything we need to know....Dennis' motion and the models have been projecting an exit off Cuba at 81-82 now for at least a day and a half...nothing will change on that end of the picture.
The critical area remains the ridge and particularly the western and NW side...WV pix now being processed of this area arepredictive of the future impact the various synoptic features will have on that ridge. The southern part of the ridge has reasserted itself and is very vigorous.
As it stands now the NHC track is verified up to the panahndle, and suggestive of a more eastern land fall nearer Apalachecola...however that depends on the resiliance of the trough barrier..it is possible and I think part of the NHC's thinking that Dennis as a Cat 3 or 4 will be the dominant synoptic feature in the region and will push that trough barrier north and west.
The trough on its southern reaches is pushing east and there is new energy from the NW diving down into Texas but that seems to flatten toward the east as it approaches the GOM. Don't look for the trough to further weaken the ridge on the NW today.
Anyway this is what I am going to watch all day...and disregard the models from here on until finis...
Sorry panhandle...as we are used to here any more hunker down.
If more people would do this kind of observation at this stage of an approaching storm at least for contingency planning we may avoid the OOPS factor so significant in Charley last year...some people here did and clearly said even before Charley crossed western Cuba that the Port Charlotte area was where the currents seemed to be pointing..too much reliance on the models created false impressions.

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Wxwatcher2   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Magic Hat   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:32 PM
. * * The West Coast will still be somewhat affected Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Tropics Guy   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Looks to be turning more northerly RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:33 PM
. * * update twizted sizter   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Recon Plan of the Day Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Xavier   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:08 AM
. * * Polk County,FL links danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:16 AM
. * * Re: Polk County,FL links geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:57 AM
. * * Cuba Map limks danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:18 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:39 AM
. * * 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:10 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:24 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited javlin   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited doug   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:47 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited geekicane   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:06 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:16 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:04 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:08 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Ed G   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:55 AM
. * * 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Dennis Track and Windfield recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Track and Windfield Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:15 PM
. * * Re: 8AM Advisory---Still 135mph Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Slow down ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Warnings for Central Florida recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Katie   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida B.C.Francis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Warnings for Central Florida Shalafi   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Vortex Message... 938 Millibars! recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Special NHC Statement recmod   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement AgentB   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:42 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement WeatherNut   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:19 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:22 PM
. * * Re: GOM Water Vapor Imagery 317288   Fri Jul 08 2005 02:18 PM
. * * SW Florida observations AdvAutoBob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: SW Florida observations msmith43   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement emilywiseman   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Mobile Hit tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement palmetto   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement TDW   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Jax Chris   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Ricreig   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement bn765   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement nl   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Lysis   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement Thunder   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:11 PM
. * * polar effect ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: polar effect Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: polar effect Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: polar effect FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: polar effect VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: polar effect trinibaje   Fri Jul 08 2005 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Special NHC Statement ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:39 PM
. * * maybe this is the one everyone has always feared Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:41 PM
. * * well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:22 PM
. * * Re: well...it's looking like Bastardi shoulda been listened to mbfly   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:27 PM
. * * looks like a buzz-saw...ANDREW TYPE OF STORM Rick on boat in Mobile   Fri Jul 08 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tpratch   Fri Jul 08 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:56 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Kevin   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Dennis the menace Rich B   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:36 AM
. * * Re: Dennis the menace OrlandoDan   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:03 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:55 AM
. * * Traffic Flow-FL/ AL state line danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Cuba Map limks rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:38 AM
. * * NWS Miami Area Forecast Discussion~edited danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:51 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba HanKFranK   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:25 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:34 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:50 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:13 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:27 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:04 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:36 AM
. * * NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: NWS Hurricane Local Statements-FL tornado00   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:26 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba berserkr   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:41 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:17 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
. * * 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:00 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far FlaMommy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:01 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:10 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: 00z runs so far Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:12 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:52 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:53 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Londovir   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:58 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Terra   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:23 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba scottsvb   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba SeeSaw99   Fri Jul 08 2005 05:07 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Lisa NC   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:46 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:14 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:30 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Colleen A.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:42 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:22 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:20 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:55 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Ron Basso   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:57 AM
. * * Canadian Global shows MS hit? Frank P   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba cjzydeco   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba gavsie   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba VandyBrad   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:11 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba G. J.   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Breeezy   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:09 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Clark   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba abyrd   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:32 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba ohioaninmiss   Fri Jul 08 2005 04:01 AM
. * * Re: Dennis and Cuba Maggie'sMom   Fri Jul 08 2005 03:50 AM

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