Shawn, you really have not miss much in the past two days...We've been watching some convection flare up and down near Jamaica and off the coast of Honduras.
Looks to be an elongated trough of low pressure from Honduras to Jamaica with pressures around the 1011-1012 range. Most of the convection now appears to be on the eastern and southern half of the broad low pressure area.
One thing for sure its been persistently inconsistent... just like all the wonderful models we have to our disposal..... hehe
Several models (AVN and CMC) on Thursday indicated a pretty significant low pressure event off the coast of SC and NC on Monday...That scenario certainly didn't pan out...
The GFDL on Friday night forecasted a significant low pressure system travel up the east coast of Florida then cross northern Florida and head back sw to GOM... that's not gonna happen...
I bet the probability of success for models predicting weather events three, four or five days out is absolutely pathetic... Someone ought to track their performances... maybe we ought to even have a congressional hearing on em too
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