Isidore and Josephine forms. Forecasting Nightmare Deluxe

I'm not paying a whole lot of attention to them today. CMC, NOGAPS and GFDL overplay a threat to Western, Peninsular Florida. Of course when it's considered that these runs are ou there now, but were actually from data at 7pm CDT last night, one can see why they're doing what they're doing. You can just see GreatOne looking at these runs, chewing off his fingertips because he's banned from posting at the Hollow but had been screaming about a Cat 5 hitting Tampa Bay this year. LOL.

Anyway, Isidore has decided on a decidedly WNW-W track for the near term. Change between 2am and 5am (EDT) is .1 north, .9 west. Maybe my math yesterday wasn't off that much

. Anyway, that's pretty much west for now. I read Basardi this morning and he offered 3 solutions: 1. Izzy gets caught up in the trof near term and heads on up to FL (most leaning toward this possibility); 2. gets caught up in the trof late and hits central Gulf (not leaning as much); 3. Trof and Izzy stare each other down and walk away - e.g. Izzy backs off WSW to a Mexican landfall (least likely in his opinion).

Me? I don't know. Forward speed is there now, but it's moving almost west the last 3 hours and NHC has hedged their track "WNW-NW" for the next 24 hours. The trof really is now digging in more eastward than southerly (progressive trof). At some point, it's got to tug at Izzy ala Opal when the 2nd trof was up in Canada/Montana and started it north toward New Orleans before aiming her at the Panhandle. For the last few days, I was thinking the 2nd trof would miss Isidore completely, but I'm not so sure now. There is a decidedly SW flow across all points west of SE LA and at some point, that's got to make a difference and force a cut to the NNE/NE in almost any scenario except one that would curve it equatorward (new word for those who like poleward). Still too tough to call, but I like my Mississippi bullseye this year. If the European has its way, it's a central gulf storm. I don't like the looks of the 00z European run inasmuch as I'm staring down the barrell of a Category 4 not too far to my SSW.

In any event, unless the NOAA decides to hire Dyno-Gel to take out Isidore, one of us is going to face Category 3 conditions early or mid next week. I hope it's >you< and not me

. I've been hoping to see some legitimate 1 or 2 conditions for a long, long time. I can't do without an intense hurricane.

Should be a nerve wracking 5 days for everyone!

Steve

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